Weather
Midwest Thanksgiving Nov. 23–26: Snow Possible in 5 States Illinois-Wisconsin
Midwest — El Niño may favor a milder pattern, but Thanksgiving snow remains possible across parts of the Midwest, according to the Farmers’ Almanac’s outlook for Nov. 23–26, 2026.
By Natalie Brooks · 2026-10-20T12:06:04.960Z
Midwest — El Niño may favor a milder pattern, but Thanksgiving snow remains possible across parts of the Midwest, according to the Farmers’ Almanac’s outlook for Nov. 23–26, 2026.
The publication’s Oct. 19 update calls for colder, more winterlike conditions with scattered snow showers or flurries in its Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest zone. That includes Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, along with neighboring Kentucky.
The Almanac anticipates possible brief travel slowdowns where snow showers develop. It does not identify a major regional snowstorm or provide snowfall totals for individual cities.
Its North Central outlook also calls for cold weather across Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas, with possible light snow singled out for the northern Plains. That does not establish a snowy Thanksgiving for every state in that zone.
NOAA’s broader November outlook favors above normal temperatures across the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi Valley and northern Plains. Below normal precipitation is favored in parts of the Great Lakes and northern Plains. The agency identifies El Niño as the dominant climate influence but acknowledges that shorter weather fluctuations remain possible.
That distinction matters for holiday travel. A month can finish warmer than average while still containing freezing nights and snow showers. Likewise, below normal precipitation does not mean an entire month will stay dry. Neither seasonal warmth nor El Niño guarantees clear roads on Thanksgiving.
Chicago’s climate offers useful context: its normal November snowfall is 1.8 inches , based on National Weather Service data for 1991–2020. The normal low for Nov. 26 is about 30 degrees . Those are historical averages, not this year’s holiday forecast.
The Almanac’s projection remains a long range prediction. NOAA says snowfall generally cannot be predicted reliably more than a week ahead. Travelers should check National Weather Service forecasts closer to departure for specific timing, accumulation and road weather concerns.