Weather
Midwest Halloween 2026: Rain Chances Rise for Oct. 25–31 Illinois–Iowa
Chicago, IL – Halloween week could bring an unusual combination of warmer than normal temperatures and increased rain potential across parts of the Midwest. Families planning outdoor celebrations Satu
By Claire Benton · 2026-10-18T08:21:11.522Z
Chicago, IL – Halloween week could bring an unusual combination of warmer than normal temperatures and increased rain potential across parts of the Midwest. Families planning outdoor celebrations Saturday, Oct. 31, may want to keep an eye on the forecast as a wetter pattern becomes possible across portions of the region.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, its 8 14 day outlook issued Saturday, Oct. 17, favors above normal temperatures across much of the Midwest from Sunday, Oct. 25, through Saturday, Oct. 31, while precipitation probabilities vary considerably from west to east.
The temperature outlook shows a broad area of expected warmth stretching from the Rockies through the Great Lakes and into the eastern United States, with some of the strongest signals centered over the Midwest.
Where could Halloween week turn wetter?
Parts of Iowa, Missouri and the western Midwest are closer to areas favoring above normal precipitation during the Oct. 25 31 period.
Illinois sits near an important transition zone, where precipitation probabilities become less decisive farther east.
Meanwhile, portions of Indiana, Ohio and the eastern Great Lakes favor near normal to below normal precipitation, suggesting the potential for a drier pattern than areas farther west.
Will Halloween night be warm but rainy?
For families in Chicago, Des Moines, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Indianapolis, above normal temperatures could reduce the likelihood of unusually cold conditions during Halloween week.
However, increased precipitation probabilities do not guarantee rain on Halloween night.
NOAA's outlook covers the entire seven day period and cannot determine whether showers will develop during Saturday evening's trick or treating hours.
For now, the Midwest appears positioned for an unusually mild stretch of late October weather, but rain could become a greater concern in some western and central areas.
Families should monitor updated forecasts closer to Oct. 31 as the timing and location of possible rain become clearer.