Weather
Tampa, Florida Weather: Warm November Outlook Oct. 26–Nov. 1
Tampa, FL – Warm weather could continue across the Tampa Bay area into the beginning of November, with federal forecasters favoring above normal temperatures as October comes to an end. The outlook fo
By Grant Holloway · 2026-10-19T08:17:20.014Z
Tampa, FL – Warm weather could continue across the Tampa Bay area into the beginning of November, with federal forecasters favoring above normal temperatures as October comes to an end. The outlook follows a stretch of sunny afternoons near 80 degrees across Tampa, St. Petersburg and surrounding communities, suggesting that Florida's fall season may continue feeling relatively warm even as much of the country moves deeper into cooler weather.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day outlook issued Oct. 18 covers Monday, Oct. 26, through Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 . The national temperature map favors above normal temperatures across Florida, including the Tampa Bay region, while the precipitation outlook shows a less consistent signal across the peninsula.
Above Normal Temperatures Favored Into November NOAA's temperature outlook places west central Florida within an area favoring above normal temperatures during the seven day period.
The national map indicates approximately a 40% to 50% probability of above normal temperatures across the Tampa Bay region, including Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties.
The broader temperature signal extends south toward Sarasota and Fort Myers and inland toward Lakeland and Polk County.
For Tampa residents, the outlook suggests that average temperatures during the period are more likely to exceed historical seasonal norms than fall into the near normal or below normal categories.
However, the extended outlook does not establish exact daily highs or overnight lows. It also does not guarantee temperatures in the 80s every afternoon.
The forecast describes the overall temperature pattern across the seven day period rather than specific daily conditions.
Tampa Forecast Calls for Sunshine and Highs Near 80 Before the extended outlook begins, the National Weather Service is forecasting a largely sunny and warm stretch across Tampa.
Monday, Oct. 19, is expected to be sunny with a high near 81 degrees. North northeast winds of 13 to 16 mph could produce gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday night should be mostly clear with temperatures falling to approximately 62 degrees, while breezy conditions continue.
Tuesday and Wednesday are both forecast to be sunny with highs near 81 degrees.
Thursday brings another sunny afternoon with temperatures around 80 degrees, followed by a clear night with a low near 62 degrees.
Friday is expected to reach approximately 81 degrees, while Saturday could climb to around 82 degrees with windy conditions.
Sunday should remain sunny and windy with a high near 81 degrees.
These daily forecasts apply to Oct. 19–25 and should not be interpreted as specific temperatures for Oct. 26–Nov. 1.
Precipitation Outlook Shows Regional Differences NOAA's precipitation outlook indicates that Florida's rainfall pattern during Oct. 26–Nov. 1 may differ from the broader temperature trend.
The Tampa Bay area appears near a transition between near normal precipitation and a modest above normal precipitation tendency across portions of the peninsula.
Farther south, parts of Florida show a clearer above normal precipitation signal.
That means the warmer than normal temperature outlook does not automatically translate into a dry forecast for Tampa.
The precipitation map describes the likelihood of total rainfall falling into a category over the seven day period. It does not establish daily thunderstorm chances or exact rainfall amounts.
For residents planning outdoor activities, boating, beach trips or late season events, the temperature outlook may be encouraging, but updated local forecasts will be needed to determine individual rain chances and wind conditions.
As November approaches, Tampa Bay is favored to remain warmer than its seasonal average, although the strength and duration of individual warm periods remain uncertain.
Would you welcome another week of 80 degree weather in Tampa Bay, or are you ready for cooler November temperatures?