Weather
Tampa, FL Weather: Rain Chances Fade Nov. 4–7 Ahead of Florida Cooldown
TAMPA, Fla. — Thunderstorms and breezy east winds will open November across the Tampa area before rain chances steadily decrease and a stretch of sunnier weather develops later this week.
By Wesley Grant · 2026-11-01T09:29:47.371Z
TAMPA, Fla. — Thunderstorms and breezy east winds will open November across the Tampa area before rain chances steadily decrease and a stretch of sunnier weather develops later this week.
The National Weather Service forecast for Tampa calls for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, Nov. 1, with precipitation chances around 60% and a high near 81. East northeast winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Rainfall amounts between roughly a quarter and half inch are possible, with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.
Storm Chances Continue Through Tuesday Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible Sunday night, with a 50% chance of precipitation and a low near 69.
Monday brings another 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning and again during the afternoon. Temperatures remain near 81 with easterly winds of 10 to 14 mph and gusts up to around 21 mph.
Rain chances decrease somewhat Monday night before another round of scattered thunderstorms becomes possible Tuesday. The Weather Service lists a 50% chance Tuesday with a noticeably warmer high near 84.
By Tuesday night, rain chances fall sharply to around 10%.
Sunshine Builds Nov. 4–7 Wednesday begins the transition toward quieter weather. Tampa is forecast to reach around 85 with mostly sunny skies, although a 30% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms remains.
The change becomes more pronounced Thursday through Saturday.
Thursday is forecast mostly sunny with a high near 83. Friday turns sunny with a high around 82, followed by another sunny day Saturday near 81. Overnight lows gradually ease from around 70 Wednesday night to the upper 60s late in the week.
That gives Tampa a distinct early November progression: storms Nov. 1–3, improving conditions Nov. 4, then substantially drier weather Nov. 5–7.
Florida Turns Cooler, Wetter Nov. 8–14 The extended outlook then introduces another change.
Unlike most of the country, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favors below normal temperatures across much of Florida during Nov. 8–14 , while above normal precipitation is favored during the same period.
That does not mean Tampa will suddenly turn cold or that rain is expected every day. The CPC outlook describes average temperatures and total precipitation across the full seven day period rather than individual daily forecasts.
For Tampa, the immediate story remains the transition: thunderstorms and breezy conditions Sunday through Tuesday, followed by drier 80 degree weather through the end of the workweek before Florida enters a potentially cooler, wetter Nov. 8–14 pattern.