Weather
NOAA Climate Outlook: Above-Average September Heat Likely Through September 21
NOAA warns of above average temperatures for much of the U.S. through September 21, as a late season heat ridge impacts cooling demand and public health safety.
By Cameron Hayes · 2026-09-11T06:16:07.329Z
Washington, D.C. – A significant portion of the United States faces a prolonged stretch of warmer than normal temperatures through the third week of September. As the transition from summer to autumn begins, residents across the southern, western, and central states should prepare for sustained heat as updated models indicate a strong probability of temperatures remaining above historical averages through late September.
According to the latest 8 14 day temperature outlook issued by the National Weather Service , the period spanning Tuesday, September 15, through Monday, September 21, will be dominated by a ridge of heat that encompasses nearly two thirds of the country. This trend is most pronounced in the American Southwest and deep South, where there is a high statistical probability of temperatures exceeding seasonal norms.
The data shows a distinct divide across the nation. While the northern tier of the United States, including parts of the Great Lakes and New England, may experience cooler, below normal temperatures, the vast majority of the lower 48 states, along with Hawaii and most of Alaska, remain locked in an above normal pattern. Meteorologists emphasize that this extended heat outlook suggests that energy demand may remain higher than typical for this time of year as cooling systems stay active longer into the season.
Public health officials recommend that residents in regions marked with the highest probability of above normal heat stay hydrated and monitor local updates as the window of September 15 to September 21 approaches. With the season shifting, these persistent high temperatures may impact agricultural interests and community events. Stay tuned to the latest updates from federal agencies to track how these shifting climate patterns may affect your region in the coming days.