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Right-wing leaders could rule 95% of the Amazon by 2027, experts warn
Right wing leaders could rule 95% of the Amazon by 2027, experts warn. Originally published by Mongabay.
By Lucas Berti · 2026-09-15T21:20:34.667Z
In January 2027, five of the nine Amazonian countries could be run by right wing or far right parties, posing new risks to the world’s greatest rainforest, experts warn. Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, and Ecuador have already elected presidents who explicitly favor agribusiness and mining over environmental conservation. Brazil, home to more than 60% of the Amazon, could be next. According to polls, the left wing incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is neck and neck ahead of October’s ballot against Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, the far right president he defeated in the last election four years ago. The elder Bolsonaro has since been convicted for an attempted coup d’état, imprisoned, and barred from running for office. Venezuela, run by a nominally socialist regime but now under economic intervention from the U.S., is facing mounting pressure from President Donald Trump to boost oil production and sign new mining deals https://news.mongabay.com/2026/09/since us intervention venezuelas illegal mining crisis has only worsened critics say/ , raising environmental concerns https://news.mongabay.com/2026/04/venezuelas new mining law could spell disaster for the amazon critics warn/ in the country. Together, these six nations cover up to 95% of the Amazon. Experts say Brazil’s election will have high stakes https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ambiente/2025/10/carlos nobre defende voto em politicos que defendem a amazonia em 2026.shtml for the Amazon and other biomes, especially as the younger Bolsonaro looks set to revive his father’s policies. “Even under a government that is somewhat committed to combating deforestation, the task is already very difficult,” Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian network of nonprofits advocating for climate action, told Mongabay. “And when there are governors who are on the opposite side of it, believing that a ‘chainsaw’ is right and that conservation laws are wrong, the situation becomes nearly impossible.” In Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia — which host a combined 28% of the Amazon — voters have since October 2025 ushered in leaders who have campaigned against environmental safeguards and in favor of militarization, mining, and agribusiness. In Ecuador, the law and order hard liner Daniel Noboa, reelected in April 2025, is reopening the country’s doors to mining while downgrading environmental agencies. Experts also warn Brazil’s October election could either give rise to a “conservative alliance” in the Amazon or force Lula to govern in diplomatic isolation. Political changes can also reshape cooperation between countries with shared borders, replacing discussions around a joint approach https://news.mongabay.com/2023/08/amazon summit sparks hope for coordinate efforts from the rainforest nations/ to protect the rainforest and its populations with a hard line security agenda to tackle organized crime — especially in crime hit border areas. The future is also uncertain for intergovernmental entities dedicated to sustainable development and Indigenous rights, such as the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization https://news.mongabay.com/short article/2025/08/indigenous people gain formal role in amazon cooperation treaty organization/ ACTO , if conservation efforts are no longer a priority regionally. And as business oriented governments take hold, trans Amazonian infrastructure projects, already facing criticism https://news.mongabay.com/2025/03/brazil plans new amazon routes linking the pacific chinas new silk road/ for potential environmental damage, may also be fast tracked. “The challenge for the Amazon will remain enormous,” Astrini said. “The scope of influence of a Brazilian government that prioritizes the environment is already limited. In other words, you can count on complementary actions from neighboring countries — provided those countries are willing. But once a new government that denies climate change comes, or actively works against efforts to address it, the ability of any government to exert influence in terms of conservation is very limited.” According to analyses https://www.maapprogram.org/special analysis/deforestation hotspots/ by the Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program MAAP , a U.S. based nonprofit, Pan Amazonian deforestation has experienced recent fluctuations: while 2024 was marked by a record high in fire impacts affecting around 2.8 million hectares, or 6.9 million acres, due to extreme droughts associated with El Niño and a 34% increase in overall deforestation, 2025 saw a partial recovery with a reduction in the area affected by fire and the lowest level of forest loss from deforestation in the last 10 years. Approximately 13% of the biome, according to MAAP https://news.mongabay.com/2024/12/the amazon in 2025 challenges and hopes as the rainforest takes center stage/ , have been deforested so far. Amid the right wing shift across much of the Amazon, Guyana, under recently re elected left leaning President Irfaan Ali, has been betting big on its fossil fuel agenda https://news.mongabay.com/podcast/2023/04/guyana gets drilled weighing south americas latest oil boom with amy westervelt/ , driven by U.S. ExxonMobil’s oil discovery offshore Guyanese territory. Suriname, meanwhile, is led by Jennifer Geerlings Simons in a coalition with left and center to right parties. Meanwhile, French Guiana operates as an overseas department of France, governed regionally by a left leaning and socialist leadership. Winds from the right In January 2023, Lula entered the presidential palace to start his third term escorted by figures representing civil society, including Indigenous Kayapó leader Raoni Metuktire. It was also a direct response to Jair Bolsonaro, who had rolled back environmental policies, official oversight, and Indigenous rights, leading to rising Amazon deforestation https://news.mongabay.com/2023/07/study confirms surge in deforestation in indigenous lands under bolsonaro/ and record levels of invasions of Indigenous territories. Nearly four years later, under Lula, Amazon deforestation has hit a 10 year low https://news.mongabay.com/short article/2026/07/amazon deforestation falls to 10 year low in first half of 2026/ as environmental policies were reinstated. In Bolivia, the victory of President Rodrigo Paz Pereira https://news.mongabay.com/2025/08/whats at stake for the environment in bolivias upcoming elections/ and his “capitalism for all” in 2025 marked the end of nearly 20 years of left wing administration under the once dominant Movement Toward Socialism MAS party. It also brought significant environmental shifts. While observers note that the practical results of the MAS administration regarding deforestation, oil drilling, and mining in the Amazon were mixed and highly debated https://news.mongabay.com/2022/08/in bolivian amazon oil blocks encroach deep into protected areas/ , Paz Pereira’s present administration has made clear from the outset that addressing these issues is not one of its priorities, as it was under the left wing party’s two decade rule. Adhering to a plan centered on economic and fiscal issues and citing https://x.com/Rodrigo PazP/status/2084459743192502394?s=20 broader “state downsizing” efforts and “reducing bureaucracy,” Paz Pereira eliminated https://es.mongabay.com/short article/2026/08/bolivia paz elimina ministerio planificacion desarrollo medio ambiente/ Bolivia’s Ministry of Environment in August 2026, relegating the portfolio to a vice ministry now attached to the Ministry of Productive Development, Rural Affairs, and Water. Also, through his Decree 5503, Paz Pereira fast tracked a series of rollbacks of environmental regulations, relaxing controls to attract foreign direct investment and private capital into the country’s energy and mineral sectors. His initial decisions were followed by protests https://es.mongabay.com/2025/11/bolivia pueblos indigenas piden presidente paz impedir mineria/ called by Amazonian Indigenous groups who feared a “mining boom” under the new administration. Valentina Figuera Martínez, a gender justice and forests campaign coordinator at the Global Forest Coalition, an international alliance for rights based conservation, Indigenous rights, and social justice, raised concerns about the legal changes, especially as seen within a broader regional context. “In Bolivia, the Mining Law requires free, prior, and informed consultation, environmental studies, and approval by the Plurinational Legislative Assembly,” Martínez told Mongabay. “However, administrative loopholes were created to allow mining projects to operate without legislative approval and in violation of territorial rights.” She said parallels exist across Amazonian countries, citing Brazil https://news.mongabay.com/short article/2026/05/brazil congress passes bill to bar use of amazon deforestation satellite tool/ as an example. Martínez pointed out that the Brazilian Congress weakened environmental oversight and legislation https://news.mongabay.com/short article/2026/05/brazil congress passes bill to bar use of amazon deforestation satellite tool/ , while Venezuela accelerated opaque oil deals with the U.S. She added that global responses continue to prioritize fossil fuel exploitation over a just climate transition. “It is the greatest erosion of rights and sovereignty in recent years,” she said. In Ecuador, environmental shifts have also taken place under Noboa, a conservative politician in office since 2023, whose administration has drawn backlash from Indigenous groups and experts https://news.mongabay.com/2025/08/ecuador axes environment ministry as officials scramble to revive economy/ for pushing mining and fossil fuel projects in the Amazon. Meanwhile, reports https://amazonunderworld.org/ni estado ni ley a dos anos de noboa la amazonia de ecuador es controlada y negociada entre grupos armados/ by collaborative media alliance Amazon Underworld suggest that Noboa’s tough on crime approach — one of his main platforms — has been fueling violence driven by illegal gold mining https://news.mongabay.com/2026/06/in ecuador an indigenous community goes thirsty despite its two rivers/ and drug trafficking. Quito is also sparking controversy by folding the Ministry of Environment into the Ministry of Energy and Mines; issuing new laws that strengthen the mining sector by eliminating environmental licensing requirements; and pushing oil and gas expansion plans worth more than $45 billion, which have been condemned by Indigenous groups https://apnews.com/article/oil expansion ecuador indigenous protest licensing noboa 2adf72c66d755ee755c64213c4c21854 . “They the right wing administrations are contributing to the accelerated extinction of life on the planet through climate denial, the violation of rights, and the dismantling of environmental regulations,” Martínez said. “Existing regulations are being violated, or mechanisms are being sought to delay implementation or roll back hard won rights.” Militarization looms over the Andes In 2026, two ultra conservative platforms prevailed with razor thin victories in the Amazon region. In July, Keiko Fujimori, daughter of late former president Alberto Fujimori 1990 2000 , took office as president of Peru. The following month, in Colombia, far right pro Trump lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella also received the presidential sash. Fujimori, who had lost the last three elections, largely avoided mentioning the Peruvian Amazon’s most sensitive issues in her inauguration speech, including deforestation and the rampant violence faced by environmental defenders. She did, however, note Peru’s growing illegal mining crisis https://news.mongabay.com/2025/12/mercury dredges and crime illegal mining ravages perus nanay river/ — whose effects include Indigenous health impacts and river contamination by heavy metals such as mercury https://news.mongabay.com/2026/09/in peru mercury leaves a toxic footprint on those who depend on a river/ — as something she plans to confront with military power. Astrini said he fears a repetition of the model adopted by Brazil under Bolsonaro https://news.mongabay.com/2024/09/how the brazilian military sabotaged protection of indigenous people in the amazon/ , when one of the government’s strategies was to remove biodiversity experts and heads of conservation units on a large scale, while militarizing decision making and leadership positions. For Astrini, a greater military presence in the Amazon, in and of itself, “is no guarantee that things will improve or that there will be security.” He also said cross border criminal activities, such as illegal timber trade, could even be facilitated under such a scenario. Fujimori’s lack of environmental policies has raised concerns among environmentalists https://news.mongabay.com/2026/08/plans of perus new administration spur concern among environmentalists/ and Indigenous groups from day one, given her intention to promote private investment and expedite environmental permits for fossil fuel and mining concessions, while also opposing https://www.actualidadambiental.pe/candidata de fuerza popular senalo estar en contra de ratificar el acuerdo de escazu/ the ratification of the Escazú Agreement, a regional treaty aimed at guaranteeing access to information, public participation, and justice in environmental matters, as well as protecting environmental defenders. Also, conservationists have warned https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia indigenas amazonia resiliencia desafios peru keiko fujimori 20260725082550.html about the legacy of her late father, who dismantled legal safeguards protecting Indigenous communal lands, leaving communities vulnerable to asymmetric negotiations with extractive corporations. Under the elder Fujimori, Indigenous women were also subjected to forced sterilization, which Amnesty International called https://www.amnesty.org/es/latest/news/2021/06/peru esterilizaciones forzadas crimenes lesa humanidad/ “crimes against humanity for which there is no statute of limitations.” In 2021, Keiko Fujimori denied https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/keiko fujimori niega las esterilizaciones forzadas en el mandato de su padre/46620732 that state led violations had occurred under her father’s presidency, calling them “family planning programs.” In Colombia, De la Espriella is inheriting from his predecessor, Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first ever left wing president, a reduction in Amazon deforestation rates — but challenges remain https://news.mongabay.com/2024/10/deforestation plunges but environmental threats remain as colombia hosts cop16/ amid the advance of illegal groups, as Mongabay has reported https://news.mongabay.com/short article/2026/05/organized crime adds to environmental destruction in the amazon report finds/ . Like many of the other leaders in the region, De la Espriella is betting on increased militarization to tackle violence. His government program https://defensoresdelapatria.com/wp content/uploads/2026/04/PROPUESTAS DEL TIGRE.pdf doesn’t mention the words “Amazon” or “deforestation,” attributing forest loss entirely to illegal economies and advocating for a militarized territorial control strategy to restore the state’s authority. This approach could replicate contested military campaigns of the past, such as Operation Artemis, which targeted vulnerable peasant farmers rather than the wealthy financiers of deforestation, and which ultimately failed https://news.mongabay.com/2023/04/operation artemis colombias failed military operation to stop deforestation/ , according to a report by Brazilian news outlet InfoAmazonia https://infoamazonia.org/es/2026/06/03/la amazonia esta en jaque por la deforestacion que proponen de la espriella y cepeda/ . Martínez said she fears seeing major social setbacks in Colombia, which she warned have historically been disproportionately harsh on women, Indigenous peoples, and land defenders. She noted that Colombia was once again named the world’s most dangerous country for land and environmental defenders in 2024, with 48 killings recorded https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/land and environmental defenders/roots of resistance/ out of 146 deaths globally, according to a 2025 Global Witness report. “If Colombia topped the list of reported murders of environmental activists under Gustavo Petro’s administration, what can we expect from the current far right government?” Martínez said. Experts say the trend is toward “increased resistance and lethality,” which could spill over and spread violence across the borders between Amazonian nations, especially in the tri border region of Brazil, Peru, and Colombia, where cartels have established roots with drug and illegal gold trafficking. De la Espriella has promised to expand fossil fuel production and mining specifically copper, gold, and silver , while recently slashing Colombia’s environmental investment budget by 50%. https://www.lasillavacia.com/silla amazonia/amazonia en breve/abelardo disminuyo el 50 de la inversion en ambiente/ “Colombia cannot continue to approach the mining and energy sector with ideological biases,” his government plan reads. Banner image : Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, right, stands alongside commanders of the armed forces during the playing of Brazil’s national anthem at a Soldier’s Day ceremony at Army headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026. Image by AP Photo/Eraldo Peres. 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