News
Powerful Hurricane Polo threatens Mexico with torrential rain as Pacific tropics erupt
Powerful Hurricane Polo threatens Mexico with torrential rain as Pacific tropics erupt. Originally published by Yale Climate Connections.
By Irene Sans, Jeff Masters, and Bob Henson · 2026-09-23T19:20:28.529Z
Hurricane Polo continues to rage in the northeast Pacific Ocean, fluctuating between Categories 4 and 5 since its extreme rapid intensification from Monday into Tuesday, September 21 22. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Lázaro Cárdenas to Punta San Telmo, Mexico, with much of the coastal area of Michoacán under the warning. A tropical storm watch is in effect from west of Punta San Telmo to Playa Pérula along the coast of the western Mexican state of Jalisco. Polo reached Category 5 intensity with astonishing speed, leaping from tropical storm strength early Monday to maximum sustained winds of 180 mph 285 km/h and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb hPa on Tuesday. According to Phil Klotzbach, https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2102476594195640478 that 892 mb reading is the second lowest on record in the eastern Pacific, just behind Hurricane Patricia in 2015, whose 872 mb minimum was a record for the entire Western Hemisphere. Polo has maintained a very compact core, at times displaying a double eyewall structure as it fluctuates in intensity while remaining a strong hurricane. Polo’s compact initial size helped it to intensify so rapidly, but Polo is now starting to expand as is common with maturing hurricanes. As of 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/231135.shtml Polo’s top sustained winds were at 150 mph, making it a strong Cat 4 storm, and its estimated central pressure had risen to 922 mb. Polo was centered about 165 miles 270 km south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Hurricane force winds extended up to 40 miles 65 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extended up to 105 miles 165 km from the center. Cat 5 Hurricane Polo is just terrifying on 3D satellite. — WeatherMatrix @weathermatrix.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:uy73np7f3ln6srlnp27bwdyt?ref src=embed 2026 09 22T22:43:01.269Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:uy73np7f3ln6srlnp27bwdyt/post/3mw5cfggrl224?ref src=embed Hurricane Polo has been a very slow moving storm since its extreme rapid intensification. The slow movement is linked to the storm making an unusually sharp turn toward the northwest. Before doing so, it had been traveling east southeast on Monday, and by Tuesday the storm finally started making a turn toward the north, barely moving at 2 mph. On Wednesday morning, the storm was basically stationary, and it is expected to remain within the same general area through much of Wednesday. By the afternoon, the storm should begin moving west northwest and gradually pick up some speed. The snail’s pace movement makes it especially impressive that Polo was able to intensify so rapidly and maintain most of its strength into Wednesday, given that slow moving hurricanes can more easily churn up cooler water. In this case, exceptionally warm water extends to unusual depths – in large part due to the record setting El Niño that continues to intensify in the eastern tropical Pacific, on top of long term human caused warming. Data from Argo floating buoys https://bsky.app/profile/drkimwood.bsky.social/post/3mw2feb7ttk22 showed that the water more than 60 meters 200 feet below the ocean surface where Polo intensified was warmer than 30 degrees Celsius 86 degrees Fahrenheit , more than ample to sustain an intense hurricane. Hurricane Polo exhibited Extreme Rapid Intensification – a term for strengthening more than 50 knots 58mph in 24 hours. Polo increased 110mph in 24 hours, the 5th fastest rate of intensification in NOAA’s Global Satellite record. Extreme rapid intensification ERI is becoming much more common 1/ — Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:iczg6a2i3etk5bscga6uv6od?ref src=embed 2026 09 23T13:00:25.210Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:iczg6a2i3etk5bscga6uv6od/post/3mw6scl7jyk2s?ref src=embed Short range forecast for Polo Polo will be making an initial pass near Mexico’s west central Pacific coast on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a potential landfall on the Baja California peninsula around Monday. The silver lining with Polo’s first pass is that the strongest winds, as well as the most intense rainfall, are expected to remain offshore and not directly impact the west central coast of Mexico. But keep in mind that coastal areas of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco could experience rainbands capable of producing very strong wind gusts and torrential rainfall. This area of Mexico has steep terrain, which could increase the risk of landslides and mudslides due to torrential rainfall coming in from the Pacific. Rainbands have already begun affecting portions of the region at times and will continue to impact the west central coast of Mexico through at least Thursday morning. By that point, the storm will begin making a turn more toward the west, moving away from the west central coast of Mexico. Polo’s greatest impact on the west central coast of Mexico will likely come from heavy rainfall. Rainbands will remain persistent through at least Thursday as the system stays roughly parallel to the coast. By Friday, as the system moves away, the rainbands could still impact portions of Colima and Jalisco but should become more sparse across Michoacán and Guerrero. General rainfall totals along the coast could range between two and four inches. Some locations in Guerrero, where the storm has remained nearly stationary and parallel to the coast for a longer period, could end up receiving four to six inches 100 to 150 mm . Isolated locations could receive up to eight inches of rain. Mudslides and life threatening flooding are possible, especially across areas of steep terrain. Surf conditions with Polo have been extremely high. Near the center of Polo, the National Hurricane Center’s marine analysis https://prod west nhc.woc.noaa.gov/mobile/text/refresh/MIATWDEP%2Bhtml/212125 MIATWDEP.html?utm source=chatgpt.com estimated wave heights of around 46 feet, or 14 meters, on Wednesday morning. Long range outlook for Polo Over the weekend, Polo will begin a gradual recurvature, turning toward the northwest on Saturday and likely taking a more northerly track by early next week. By this point, Polo will be moving over slightly cooler waters and into a more hostile vertical wind shear environment. These conditions will begin to disrupt the hurricane’s structure and force it to steadily weaken. But it’s quite possible Polo will still be a significant hurricane as it approaches Baja California, and its circulation will have expanded by that point, so coastal residents will need to monitor the forecast closely. Most of the long range GFS ensemble members https://www.weathernerds.org/tc guidance/images/EP17 2026092306 GEFS large.png?1790163789 on Wednesday morning suggested that Polo will make landfall on the coast of Baja California early next week, though a minority of GFS tracks angle back offshore before any landfall. The Google DeepMind ensemble https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab was nearly unanimous on a Baja California landfall, with the intensity depending in part on how quickly Polo is moving at that point. By later next week, Polo’s remnants could juice the atmosphere and help fuel localized heavy rains into northwest Mexico and perhaps parts of the southwest and south central United States. Get news for people who love the planet. Sign up for our newsletters for the latest weather updates, tips, and inspiring stories As Polo tracks toward Baja California, it will likely pass just west of the small island of Socorro. The island has a permanent population of roughly 250 people, consisting mainly of Mexican Navy personnel, staff, and their families. This year’s Category 5 storms to date Polo is the planet’s seventh Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026. The others thus far: The 1990 2025 average yearly number of Category 5 storms globally was 5.3; there were five in 2025 Hurricanes Melissa, Erin, and Humberto in the Atlantic; Typhoon Ragasa in the Northwest Pacific; and Cyclone Errol in the South Indian Ocean . The number of Cat 5s has increased globally since accurate global satellite data became available in 1982 this increase is statistically significant at the 99.5% level . Numerous studies https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter 11/ over the past 20 years have found that hurricane strength storms are not becoming more numerous globally, but the fraction of such storms that reach Category 4 or 5 strength is growing and expected to keep growing, so the world is seeing more of these intense tropical cyclones, which tend to be the most deadly and destructive ones. Also in the Eastern Pacific: Odalys and more Hurricane Odalys intensified early Wednesday morning and is now a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, or 120 km/h. This system is over the open eastern Pacific and is expected to remain well away from land. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Odalys is expected to continue meandering across the open waters, generally taking an east northeast track before gradually dissipating over the weekend while remaining well away from the Baja California Peninsula. NOAA/NHC has also highlighted an area near where Polo is currently located that has an 80% chance of tropical development during the next seven days. Late this week, as Polo accelerates northwestward, another low pressure system is expected to form just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. From there, a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as the system moves slowly toward the west northwest, also remaining roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. We will continue to monitor this system closely, as additional rainfall could affect some of the same areas impacted by Hurricane Polo next week. The next name on the Eastern Pacific list is Rachel. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml enp Massive rains, catastrophic flooding possible in eastern Hawaii this weekend A new tropical depression in the Central Pacific poses a serious flooding threat to eastern Hawaii, including Maui and the Big Island, by this weekend. Tropical Depression 15 E https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/230844.shtml? is predicted to strengthen into a tropical storm later on Wednesday. The next name on the Central Pacific list is Nolo. Like Polo, this system will be twisting and shifting directions, potentially coming close to southern Hawaii as a major hurricane, as predicted by NHC on Wednesday. The setup for 15 E/future Nolo is especially concerning in its rarity. No major hurricane on record has tracked this close to the Big Island, and of the handful of majors that have passed within 250 miles, all were moving on straightforward west to east tracks. TD 15 E will be approaching from the south, which could yield a much more prolonged period of intense onshore flow and torrential rainbands. Making matters even worse, the circulation around the north side of this system already has a broad shield of unusually rich atmospheric moisture, with precipitable water amounts exceeding 2.75 in. 70 mm https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=15E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=111110000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF . Widespread rainfall totals of 20 to 30 inches 500 750 mm are predicted across the southeast half of the Big Island, and 12 16 inches 300 400 mm over southeastern Maui. Isolated totals could reach 35 inches on the Big Island and 20 inches on Maui. Life threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of higher elevation. Large swells are also expected as the storm continues to strengthen. Wave heights are expected to increase along south and east facing shores, producing life threatening surf and rip currents. At a time when the National Weather Service and climate science are under attack, Yale Climate Connections meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson are sharing life saving news about extreme weather. Will you chip in to support their hurricane coverage in 2025? How close this system gets to the Big Island before making its left turn west depends on the evolution of an upper low that will be moving southwestward on the other side of Hawaii over the next few days. The timing and motion of this upper low’s evolution is tough to nail down, and so there’s higher uncertainty than usual in the track forecast for TD 15 E. But there’s stronger agreement on the northward track prior to the turn, and this unusual motion will help ensure a significant and possibly destructive rainfall event for Hawaii. For the 3rd time this season, HAWAII will likely be watching a hurricane. While it hasn't come together yet, everything indicates that as we head into the weekend a hurricane possibly up to CAT 3 will be nearby. It's name would be NOLO and it could again produce FEET of rain. pic.twitter.com/qssK2ULf5n https://t.co/qssK2ULf5n — Evan Andrews @EvanAndrewsWX September 23, 2026 https://x.com/EvanAndrewsWX/status/2102803135739593025?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw Two potential short lived systems in the Atlantic The remnants of what was once Fay continue to meander about 800 miles south of the Azores. This area is moving westward over the next few days, and although it has a low chance of tropical development, vertical wind shear is expected to increase. This should eventually eliminate its chances of redeveloping into a tropical system. Coming off the coast of Africa, an area of low pressure located about 600 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands could become the next short lived tropical depression on Thursday. The Cabo Verde Islands could experience gusty winds and heavy rainfall late this week before the system enters an area of strong upper level winds, which should bring an end to its tropical development. Nor’easter to bring coastal flooding to the mid Atlantic and Northeast The season’s first extratropical coastal storm a “nor’easter” was developing on Wednesday off the coast of North Carolina and will move slowly northeastward toward New England over the next few days, bringing heavy rains and flooding. The Wednesday forecast from NOAA https://water.noaa.gov/ @= 75.2736389,36.7932529,6.2696437&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0,true,5,10,1!1!1!1!1!1&ab=0,0, calls for major coastal flooding in northern North Carolina and in Virginia along Chesapeake Bay on Thursday, with moderate flooding along portions of the coast of Maryland, New Jersey, and Delaware. Coastal flooding at high tide is expected to continue on Friday and Saturday for many of these locations. Moderate coastal flooding is likely to begin on Friday and last into Saturday for coastal New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Nor’easters are uncommon this time of year, with only about 1% of all such storms occurring in September. Nor’easters are not at all common this time of the year. Only 1 percent of them have historically occurred during September. Around 90 percent of them occur from November to April. pic.twitter.com/HNziwOYf2K https://t.co/HNziwOYf2K — Ben Noll @BenNollWeather September 23, 2026 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2102751621407240589?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw Climate change is boosting landslide risks in southern Appalachia https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/climate change is boosting landslide risks in southern appalachia/ Scientists link fossil fuel producers to the West’s worsening water shortages https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/scientists link fossil fuel producers to the wests worsening water shortages/ Hurricane Helene changed one survivor’s approach to preparedness https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/hurricane helene changed one survivors approach to preparedness/ Republish This Story Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. Republish this article This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/ . We love it when others republish our articles. Most of our content – other than images – is available to republish for free under a Creative Commons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/deed.en license CC BY NC ND 4.0 . Here’s what to do: by Irene Sans, Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections September 23, 2026 Irene Sans is an Emmy winning double certified meteorologist by the American Meteorological Society AMS, CBM, CDM with almost 20 years of experience covering severe weather and climate stories across... More by Irene Sans https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/irenesans/ Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986 1990. After a near fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a... More by Jeff Masters https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/jmasters/ Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance... More by Bob Henson https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/bhenson/