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How close to Hawaii will Hurricane Lowell get?
How close to Hawaii will Hurricane Lowell get?. Originally published by Yale Climate Connections.
By Bob Henson and Jeff Masters · 2026-09-05T23:05:42.582Z
While the Atlantic stayed eerily quiet as the Labor Day weekend began, three simultaneous hurricanes were churning across the central and eastern North Pacific – the first time this has happened there in 11 years https://weather.com/2026/09/03/storms/hurricane/three hurricanes pacific same time lowell karina marie . The most worrisome of the trio, Lowell, is expected to remain a major hurricane through the weekend as it carves out a tight northward turn and heads in the general direction of Hawaii. Regardless of Lowell’s exact track, big waves will be raking Hawaii for days on end. Already on Friday, a high surf advisory was in effect on south facing shores across the state. Large breaking waves up to 12 feet were expected. At higher terrain, and on the northern sides of the islands, wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible on Friday, driven by the pressure gradient between Lowell and a strong ridge to the north of Hawaii. Those winds should abate somewhat by Saturday – ironically in part because of distant Hurricane Karina weakening that ridge – but winds should resurge on Sunday and especially Monday as Lowell approaches from the southwest. Although Hawaii’s geographic layout is not especially prone to major storm surge, Lowell’s onshore flow on Monday will occur near the monthly peak in high tides, exacerbating any high water that does occur. As of 11 p.m. HST Thursday 5 a.m. EDT Friday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP4+shtml/040854.shtml? , Lowell was centered roughly 600 miles 960 kilometers south of Lihue, Kauai. Top sustained winds were at 125 mph 205 km/h . Lowell surged briefly to Category 5 strength on Wednesday, making it the planet’s sixth Cat 5 of 2026. See our previous post https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/edouard delivers an outsized flash flood punch to eastern texas/ for more detail on the first five. Lowell continued to move west northwest at about 8 mph 13 km/h . Wind shear will remain light to moderate 5 10 knots along Lowell’s path into Sunday, and with sea surface temperatures close to 29 degrees Celsius 84 degrees Fahrenheit and a fairly moist mid level atmosphere, Lowell should have no trouble maintaing its strength and perhaps reintensifying to Category 4. Wind shear will increase markedly by Monday, and a gradual weakening trend should begin, as Lowell makes a sharp right turn and begins accelerating northward. Models agree strongly on the big picture of that crucial right turn, but the exact timing and location – driven in part by Karina’s weakening of the steering ridge – are difficult to pin down. By late Monday, Lowell is expected to be racing through or just west of the sparsely populated northwestern Hawaiian Islands as a major Category 3 hurricane. There was a decreasing but still nonzero chance on Friday that Lowell’s track might angle far enough east to bring significant impacts to Kauai or other islands, as reflected on a small minority of ensemble members from the European and GFS model runs early Friday morning. Any such easterly jog could make Lowell the highest impact hurricane Hawaii has experienced since Iniki devastated Kauai in 1992. The National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu put it this way late Thursday https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDHFO&e=202609040110 : “The extent of the impacts from Lowell could range from minor to major depending on the eventual path of the storm, and more specifically when the abrupt turn to the north occurs.” It's looking a little more likely that the core of Lowell https://x.com/hashtag/Lowell?src=hash&ref src=twsrc%5Etfw will not move over the Hawaiian Islands. Most models are showing it missing a little to the west, as is the official forecast from @NHC Pacific https://x.com/NHC Pacific?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw . However, ensemble guidance still suggests a close pass with some impacts… pic.twitter.com/B7uWUnBRqf https://t.co/B7uWUnBRqf — Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton September 4, 2026 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2095856712766886193?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw If Lowell accelerates and stays just west of the major islands as predicted, that will help keep rainfall totals from hitting truly extreme values. Still, the rainfall forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics cp4+shtml/041447.shtml?rainqpf contents issued Friday morning by the NWS Weather Prediction Center called for widespread four to eight inch amounts over most islands, with isolated totals exceeding 10 inches possible. The three distinctly different billion dollar weather disasters in Hawaii’s history The only major hurricane on record to strike Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki, which hit the island of Kauai on September 11, 1992, with sustained winds of 145 mph 235 km/h and a central pressure of 945 mb. Damage was estimated at $7.3 billion 2026 inflation adjusted dollars , and seven people were killed. Because Iniki moved quickly through the islands, there were no reports of significant flash flood damage from heavy rainfall. Brief clips of rainbands and post storm damage from Iniki can be seen in the 1993 blockbuster “Jurassic Park,” which was being filmed in Kauai https://nypost.com/2022/09/11/how hurricane iniki impacted jurassic park 30 years ago/ at the time. Get news for people who love the planet. Sign up for our newsletters for the latest weather updates, tips, and inspiring stories Hawaii’s only other comparable weather disaster – with a damage tally similar to Iniki’s but far more loss of life – was the August 8, 2023, Lahaina firestorm on Maui, which killed 100 and caused $6 billion in damage 2026 USD . The fire’s spread was aided by winds blowing in response to an unusually strong high pressure system northwest of Hawaii and Hurricane Dora to the south. Thousands of homes, vehicles, and businesses were destroyed. This Lahaina survivor's story is so harrowing. It reminded me of the stories people told about the Great Chicago Fire. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/podcasts/the daily/hawaii deaths.html — Robert Loerzel @robertloerzel.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:zpjngx2zthi4a3zeizcqjngg?ref src=embed 2023 08 19T01:07:25.661Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:zpjngx2zthi4a3zeizcqjngg/post/3k5bl4f7pwg27?ref src=embed Only one other weather event in Hawaii history has reached the billion dollar damage mark, and it arrived earlier this year. Back to back Kona low systems in March 2026 caused prolonged heavy rainfall and destructive flooding with $1 billion in damage. Rainfall totals surpassed 20 inches on Oahu, Kauai, and the Big Island, while Maui saw localized totals exceeding 40 inches. This rainfall triggered flash flooding, rapidly rising streams, and landslides, while wind gusts exceeding 70 mph downed trees, caused structural damage, and knocked out power for many residents across Maui, Oahu, and the Big Island. The flooding swept away homes, damaged airports, hospitals, schools, infrastructure, and numerous roadways. Kona storm triggers severe flooding in Kihei, Hawaii on March 14, 2026. — Jay @ the deep dive @thedeepdive.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:toj3xe4fajjfbtc3niqwz46z?ref src=embed 2026 03 15T18:05:39.049Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:toj3xe4fajjfbtc3niqwz46z/post/3mh4jtmhcjk2s?ref src=embed Hawaii storm surge risk Islands with deep water offshore, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are not very susceptible to large storm surges, since the water piled up by a hurricane’s winds can merely flow around the sides of the island. According to NOAA’s disaster report for Hurricane Iniki https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/iniki1.pdf , about 4% of the 1,421 houses destroyed on Kauai were lost to storm surge, with wind destroying the rest. Inundations from storm surge were generally between two to four feet, with peaks along the south Kauai shore of four to six feet. A high water mark from the surge plus waves of 22.2 ft 6.8 m was recorded at Waikomo Stream near Koloa. The high waves left a debris line more than 800 feet 240 m inland. As seen from NOAA’s hurricane storm surge risk map for Kauai Fig. 3 , a worst case Category 3 hitting at high tide would bring only limited storm surge flooding to scattered portions of the island. Iniki’s storm surge brought inundations of two to four feet to western Oahu, with just over five feet observed around Honolulu. As seen from NOAA’s hurricane storm surge risk map https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category 3 for Oahu Fig. 4 , a worst case Category 3 hitting Oahu would be capable of flooding Honolulu’s airport with three to six feet of water, with similar inundations occurring across downtown, including Waikiki Beach. Big swells from Hurricane Marie will push toward the Mexico and California coasts; significant rain possible in SoCal Dangerous coastal conditions for swimmers and boaters, including deadly rip currents, will be evolving from Baja California in Mexico to Southern California over the U.S. holiday weekend as Hurricane Marie continues grinding across the open Northeast Pacific. Marie was centered at 11 a.m. EDT Friday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/041441.shtml about 550 miles 885 kilometers west southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with top sustained winds of 100 mph 160 km/h making it a Category 2 storm. Light wind shear around five knots and warm waters of 27 28 degrees Celsius 82 84 degrees Fahrenheit could allow Marie to strengthen slightly on Friday. 9/4 – Hurricane Marie https://x.com/hashtag/Marie?src=hash&ref src=twsrc%5Etfw is generating a large area of swell that will continue to expand over the next couple of days as the hurricane moves farther into the open waters of the eastern Pacific. More at https://t.co/Wk7xxBl094 https://t.co/Wk7xxBl094 marinewx https://x.com/hashtag/marinewx?src=hash&ref src=twsrc%5Etfw pic.twitter.com/18XzpE6P5R https://t.co/18XzpE6P5R — NHC TAFB @NHC TAFB September 4, 2026 https://x.com/NHC TAFB/status/2095771842195620242?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw At a time when the National Weather Service and climate science are under attack, Yale Climate Connections meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson are sharing life saving news about extreme weather. Will you chip in to support their hurricane coverage in 2025? Steady weakening is expected to commence by Saturday and especially from Sunday onward as Marie moves northwest into increasingly drier air, higher wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures. It’s looking very unlikely that Marie or its remnants might get pulled bodily northeast into Southern California next week – a possibility that some members of various ensemble model runs had keyed on earlier in the week. However, a slug of moisture four to five standard deviations above average precipitable water approaching two inches will spin off from Marie’s north edge around Sunday. Bands of showers along this moisture channel will likely train northeastward across Southern California, perhaps bringing highly unusual early September rains to the Los Angeles Basin and somewhat heavier showers and storms toward Las Vegas and into northern Arizona and southern Utah. There’s at least a marginal chance of flash flooding throughout this corridor on Sunday, according to a Friday outlook https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive rainfall outlook ero.php from the NWS Weather Prediction Center. “Slot canyons may be a particularly dangerous place to be on Sunday afternoon,” the center warned. Just twice in 149 years of recordkeeping has downtown Los Angeles received more than half an inch of rain on any one day between September 1 and 15. Those totals were 2.39 inches on September 15, 2015, and 1.74 inches on September 10, 1976. Farther out in the open Northeast Atlantic, resilient Hurricane Karina entered its ninth day as a named storm on Friday. After peaking at Category 4 strength, Karina’s top sustained winds were down to 90 mph 160 km/h as of 11 a.m. EDT Friday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/041444.shtml , making Karina a Cat 1 storm. Dry air and increased wind shear should pull Karina below hurricane strength by Sunday, if not sooner, as it continues moving northwest far from shore. All quiet on the Atlantic front According to the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 issued at 8 a.m. EDT Friday, no tropical development was expected in the Atlantic through at least September 11. If this outlook proves correct, the Atlantic will make history, as no year in modern recordkeeping has gotten to September 12 without producing at least one Atlantic hurricane. The old record of September 11 was set by Humberto in 2013 and matched by Gustav in 2002. On average https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ bac 1991 2020 , the year’s third and fourth Atlantic hurricanes arrive on September 7 and 16, and the first and second major hurricanes have occurred by September 1 and 19. The U.S. also averages three named storm landfalls per year, with two of those being hurricanes. Interestingly, for this year through September 3 – with the season not quite half over – we’ve already had three named storm landfalls: Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard. One of these, Arthur, was a billion dollar storm. Despite these landfalls, the Atlantic’s five tropical storms to date have been generally tepid and short lived. None of them have generated top sustained winds above 60 mph 95 km/h , and none have persisted for more than five days as tropical cyclones. The inactivity of our Atlantic hurricane season is just as impressive as an active season. 4.4 units of ACE going into September, while the Atlantic looks to remain dead for the future. Insane! 2026 could rival 1977 and 1982 in the ACE department, with a chance at 1983. pic.twitter.com/28DdEWFHbU https://t.co/28DdEWFHbU — Michael Ferragamo @FerragamoWx September 4, 2026 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/2095881436188246254?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw The wild contrast this year in accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, between the North Pacific and other oceanic basins testifies to the globe spanning impact of the current fast intensifying El Niño. As tallied by Colorado State University, here are the total ACE units for this year through September 3 and how the totals in each basin compare to a typical year 1991 2020 : North Atlantic: 4.4 average to date = 45.1; percent of average = 10% Central and Eastern North Pacific: 138.4 average to date 85.8; percent of average = 161% Northwest Pacific: 216.7 average to date = 141.3; percent of average = 154% North Indian: 0 average to date = 9.3; percent of average = 0% Irene Sans contributed to this post. Wildfires, beyond the headlines https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/wildfires beyond the headlines/ Hot weather linked to workplace injuries, even indoors https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/hot weather linked to workplace injuries even indoors/ Staff picks: Our favorite climate books https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/staff picks our favorite climate books/ Republish This Story Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. Republish this article This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/ . We love it when others republish our articles. Most of our content – other than images – is available to republish for free under a Creative Commons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/deed.en license CC BY NC ND 4.0 . Here’s what to do: by Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections September 4, 2026 Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance... More by Bob Henson https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/bhenson/ Jeff Masters, Ph.D., worked as a hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986 1990. After a near fatal flight into category 5 Hurricane Hugo, he left the Hurricane Hunters to pursue a... More by Jeff Masters https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/jmasters/