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Edouard delivers an outsized flash-flood punch to eastern Texas
Edouard delivers an outsized flash flood punch to eastern Texas. Originally published by Yale Climate Connections.
By Bob Henson · 2026-09-05T23:11:27.393Z
Wednesday’s landfall of short lived Tropical Storm Edouard on the southeast Texas coast may have seemed as mercifully benign as it gets, but its rains have ended up causing more trouble than expected well inland. Although the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center has ceased advisories on Edouard, a corridor of intense rains was causing locally catastrophic flooding. A 39 hour radar loop of Tropical Storm Edouard organizing and intensifying up to landfall, then maintaining its tropical cyclone structure well inland due to strong inflow from the warm, humid Gulf of Mexico. — Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pww7y3jqm3lc5ugvqdbhnzej?ref src=embed 2026 09 02T15:07:10.323Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pww7y3jqm3lc5ugvqdbhnzej/post/3muk7lvd5ek2l?ref src=embed Edouard was drifting northward as a depression at midday Wednesday with top sustained winds of 35 mph. The NWS Weather Prediction Center alerted residents in a broad swath from roughly Houston and Beaumont Port Arthur to Dallas Fort Worth of the risk of flash flooding https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics at5+shtml/021449.shtml?ero contents on Wednesday, with a top end threat at the center of this swath over parts of far east Texas. Additional major flash flooding could erupt on Wednesday afternoon and evening as Edouard crawls northward. The towns of Kountze, Village Mills, and Honey Island were placed in a flash flood emergency https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LCH&wwa=flash%20flood%20warning around dawn on Wednesday. Edouard continues to produce prolific rainfall across southeastern TX this morning as it slowly moves northward. Widespread damaging and potentially catastrophic flooding is possible with a HIGH risk of flooding in effect. TurnAroundDontDrownweather.gov — National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pfot5zyhod4cxwc5gfhzds4i?ref src=embed 2026 09 02T14:57:15.526Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pfot5zyhod4cxwc5gfhzds4i/post/3muk7264ibz2c?ref src=embed Among the highest 24 hour rainfall amounts reported in the CoCoRaHS network as of early Wednesday morning were nine inches near Woodville, 7.97 inches near Livingston, and 6.99 inches near Beaumont. Doppler radar estimates of rainfall ranged from five to 20 inches https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LCH&wwa=flash%20flood%20warning in parts of Tyler and Hardin counties, according to the National Weather Service. Some such rainfall estimates were approaching 30 inches https://bsky.app/profile/weatherprof.bsky.social/post/3muk7zu2ofk27 by midday. Flash flood EMERGENCY is in effect in Hardin and Tyler Counties, Texas, where 15 28 inches of rain have fallen. Rainfall rates up to 6 INCHES PER HOUR! A stout Gulf moisture tongue allowed Edouard to maintain structure/strength farther inland. @MatthewCappucci https://x.com/MatthewCappucci?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw updates: pic.twitter.com/zLZsxzsSlq https://t.co/zLZsxzsSlq — MyRadar Weather @MyRadarWX September 2, 2026 https://x.com/MyRadarWX/status/2095158378326573408?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw According to NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al05/al052026.update.09011924.shtml , Edouard made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Texas, at 2:20 p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 1, with top sustained winds estimated at 60 mph 95 km/h . The storm’s compact size means that its peak winds over land could have occurred in between reporting stations. No major wind related or storm surge destruction was reported. Just before landfall, sustained winds at the easternmost point on the Texas Gulf Coast – the aptly named Texas Point, Texas, https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station page.php?station=txpt2 – reached 57 mph 93 km/h , gusting to 71 mph 114 km/h . ‼️ Breaking: 1000 YR Rainfall ‼️ This time from former Tropical Storm Edouard which has dropped nearly 30 inches in Texas and it’s still raining hard! FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Hardin and Tyler Counties in Texas. Stay off flooded roads. flood — Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:iczg6a2i3etk5bscga6uv6od?ref src=embed 2026 09 02T15:14:58.751Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:iczg6a2i3etk5bscga6uv6od/post/3muk7zu2ofk27?ref src=embed Get news for people who love the planet. Sign up for our newsletters for the latest weather updates, tips, and inspiring stories Still no Atlantic hurricane in 2026 thus far After Edouard, no other systems are showing signs of tropical development in the Atlantic over at least the next week – through September 9 – according to NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 issued on Wednesday morning. As discussed by Michael Lowry in his Tuesday Substack post https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/tropical storm edouard sliding toward?utm source=post email title&publication id=913838&post id=213704425&utm campaign=email post title&isFreemail=true&r=fykqe&triedRedirect=true&utm medium=email , assuming we finish this week without a hurricane, 2026 will rank fifth for the latest forming first hurricane of the satellite era. The latest date of the first Atlantic hurricane since 1950 is September 11 Humberto in 2013 and Gustav in 2002 . The average date for the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11, and we should have already had two hurricanes by now. Interestingly, the U.S. averages three landfalls by named storms per year with two of them being hurricanes . With the season almost half over, we’ve already had three landfalls: Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard. One of these, Arthur, was a billion dollar storm. A slingshot path may send Lowell toward Hawaii next week Hurricane Lowell has become a true behemoth in the tropical Pacific. Centered about 455 miles 730 kilometers south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as of 5 a.m. HST 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Lowell was packing top sustained winds of 155 mph 250 km/h , just below the Category 5 threshold. Lowell has intensified at a truly frenzied pace, going from Cat 1 to high end Cat 4 in just 24 hours, a gain of 75 mph 120 km/h in sustained winds. Within a 500 mi 800 km radius of Lowell, extending up to the Island of Hawaii, only four Category 5 hurricanes https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ map=5.41/13.51/ 153.2&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiIxMy40TiAxNTMuMlciLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIjoiY2VudGVyIiwibGF0IjoxMy40LCJsb24iOi0xNTMuMiwiY2F0ZWdvcmllcyI6WyJINSJdLCJ5ZWFycyI6W10sIm1vbnRocyI6W10sImVuc28iOltdLCJwcmVzc3VyZSI6eyJyYW5nZSI6WzAsMTAzMF0sImluY2x1ZGVVbmtub3duUHJlc3N1cmUiOnRydWV9LCJidWZmZXIiOjUwMCwiYnVmZmVyVW5pdCI6WyJNaWxlcyJdLCJzb3J0U2VsZWN0aW9uIjp7InZhbHVlIjoieWVhcnNfbmV3ZXN0IiwibGFiZWwiOiJZZWFyIChOZXdlc3QpIn0sImFwcGx5VG9BT0kiOnRydWUsImlzU3Rvcm1MYWJlbHNWaXNpYmxlIjp0cnVlfQ== have ever been reported: Emilia, Gilma, and John – all in 1994 – and Lane in 2018. NHC was predicting that Lowell would join this elite group later on Wednesday. Lowell is benefiting not only from the near record oceanic warmth spawned by the ongoing strong El Niño event sea surface temperatures along Lowell’s path are around 1 2 degrees Celsius or 2 4 degrees Fahrenheit above average but also from a sustained period of light wind shear, expected to average only about 5 knots for at least the next five days. Lowell is also expected to dodge any large areas of midlevel dryness, with relative humidity expected to hold in the 55 65 percent range for at least the next five days. Sea surface temperatures will remain above 28°C 82°F along Lowell’s path, more than warm enough to sustain a high end hurricane. No two tropical cyclones are alike, yet the latest NHC forecast for Hurricane Lowell to potentially turn northward in a few days reminds me of Hurricane Iniki 1992 .Lowell's possible turn is still many days out, so guidance will evolve. Stay tuned to nhc.noaa.gov for the latest information! — Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:tehzqnmpivodcl4c7xdekwu3?ref src=embed 2026 09 02T14:13:26.778Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:tehzqnmpivodcl4c7xdekwu3/post/3muk4lt4e7c2n?ref src=embed At a time when the National Weather Service and climate science are under attack, Yale Climate Connections meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson are sharing life saving news about extreme weather. Will you chip in to support their hurricane coverage in 2025? With all this in mind, Lowell will likely maintain most of its strength into the upcoming weekend, weakening only gradually early next week. Huge swells can be expected to reach Hawaii over the next few days. A more serious concern is the threat foreseen by long range models for days, one that’s now showing up in official NHC forecasts https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics cp4+shtml/021449.shtml?cone contents , of a sharp right hand turn northward starting this weekend. The exact timing and sharpness of this 90 degree turn, and Lowell’s forward speed after it makes the turn, will be critical in determining whether Lowell might pose any landfall threat to any of the Hawaiian islands. As of Wednesday, a substantial number of European model ensemble members were projecting that Lowell would cross the island chain, potentially while still at hurricane strength. Lowell still a cat 4 storm, barely. Max winds at 155 mph. Satellite estimates put the max winds closer to 170 mph. This storm will become a cat 5 today. A sharp turn towards Hawaii looks likely now — Greg Porter @gporterwx.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:6tfr6u46vc6jqt37tomkitvu?ref src=embed 2026 09 02T15:11:31.582Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:6tfr6u46vc6jqt37tomkitvu/post/3muk7toibyk2o?ref src=embed Marie bears watching for a slim chance of Southwest U.S. impacts Another powerhouse Pacific storm could affect a different part of the United States next week. Tropical Storm Marie, predicted to be a hurricane by Wednesday night, will continue paralleling the coast of Mexico several hundred miles offshore into this weekend. Marie is expected to reach at least Cat 2 strength as it heads northwest. There’s high uncertainty on what will happen when Marie hits a meteorological fork in the road early next week, when Marie or its remnants will either get pulled rightward toward Southern California and the Desert Southwest possible but not likely or shunted leftward away from the U.S. Coast the more likely possibility . Update: The tropical weather feature of great interest–Tropical Storm & soon hurricane Marie–has now developed. Marie's track will dictate potential CA impacts over Labor Day; uncertainty remains high, w/significant impacts possible but direct landfall unlikely . Thread — Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:gslrbg7et2wxhlhrkqtwlm22?ref src=embed 2026 09 01T22:07:54.000Z https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:gslrbg7et2wxhlhrkqtwlm22/post/3muigncyugz2f?ref src=embed Even with El Niño in place, the waters between Marie’s track and Southern California are too cool https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas sflux sst epac 1.png to sustain a full blown hurricane. However, remnant moisture could certainly bring unusual September rains to the region if Marie takes that right turn which depends on weather features that are still evolving right now . It’s not absolutely impossible that a storm like Marie could make landfall as a tropical system between Santa Barbara and San Diego, but that would be a once in a generation occurrence, highly unlikely to play out. Jeff Masters and Irene Sans contributed to this post. Republish This Story Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. Republish this article This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/ . We love it when others republish our articles. Most of our content – other than images – is available to republish for free under a Creative Commons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/deed.en license CC BY NC ND 4.0 . Here’s what to do: by Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections September 2, 2026 Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance... More by Bob Henson https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/bhenson/