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Another hurricane to bring torrential rains to Hawaii
Another hurricane to bring torrential rains to Hawaii. Originally published by Yale Climate Connections.
By Irene Sans and Bob Henson · 2026-09-07T18:20:43.039Z
As is common during El Niño years, the Pacific continues to produce numerous tropical cyclones. While the Eastern Pacific has developed more named tropical storms, the Central Pacific has seen one of this season’s strongest hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific has seen 13 named tropical systems so far this season. Of those, four became hurricanes, and three—Fausto, Karina, and Lowell—crossed into the Central Pacific. The Central Pacific also saw Lala and Moke. Lala caused major flooding in Hawaii, while Moke fortunately remained at a safe distance south of the islands, bringing only sporadic rainfall. The strongest of these Central and Eastern Pacific hurricanes is Lowell, which peaked twice as a Category 5 storm over the Labor Day weekend and was expected to pass just west of Kauai and Niihau on Monday night, forcing a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep12/ep122026.public.044.shtml for Kauai County and a tropical storm watch for Oahu see below . The Pacific’s storm factory is going strong Former Hurricane Karina, which peaked at Category 4 strength, was declared post tropical https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep11/ep112026.public.043.shtml on Sunday afternoon HST after more than 10 days roaming the Eastern North Pacific as a named system. Though it never threatened land directly, Karina has influenced Lowell’s track by weakening the area of high pressure north of Hawaii https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/how close to hawaii will hurricane lowell get/ . This allowed Lowell to make a sharp turn to the north on Sunday, September 6, setting the storm up to pass very near the westernmost of Hawaii’s major islands on Monday night. Lowell has been a remarkable storm. It rapidly intensified from maximum sustained winds of 80 mph early Tuesday morning HST https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep12/ep122026.public.020.shtml to 155 mph by early Wednesday morning https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep12/ep122026.public.025.shtml , easily meeting the National Hurricane Center’s definition of rapid intensification—an increase in maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph 30 knots within 24 hours. By reaching Category 5 intensity at 160 mph at 11 a.m. HST Wednesday morning https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep12/ep122026.public.026.shtml , Lowell became the second Category 5 hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season, following Genevieve. However, Lowell is the only one to cross into the Central Pacific, making it the first Category 5 hurricane there since Hurricane Walaka in 2018. Since then, Lowell has fluctuated between Category 3 and Category 5 intensity through Saturday, September 5. Only two other Pacific hurricanes are known to have attained, lost, and then regained Cat 5 strength: Emilia 1994 and Ioke 2006 . Get news for people who love the planet. Sign up for our newsletters for the latest weather updates, tips, and inspiring stories Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of Hawaii As of 5 a.m. HST Monday https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP4+shtml/071452.shtml? , Lowell was located about 405 miles 650 km southwest of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph 185 km/h , moving to the north northeast at 14 mph 22 km/h . The hurricane winds extended out from its center 60 miles or 95 km, and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles or 280 km from its center. In its 5 a.m. HST advisory, NHC shifted the track about 35 miles 30 knots east of the previous forecast, which brings Lowell closer to the western Hawaiian Islands. This shift prompted a Tropical Storm Watch to be issued for Oahu. Lowell’s center is on track to pass directly through the tiny, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. The sprawling eastern side of Lowell will bring torrential rains and gale force winds to large parts of the main Hawaiian Islands. Lowell is predicted to weaken only gradually, likely becoming a Category 1 or 2 storm by Tuesday and a tropical storm by Wednesday, as Lowell will encounter stronger wind shear, drier air, and cooler waters, all of which will steadily weaken the system as the week progresses. Hurricane Lowell remains right of track of the latest NHC forecast — even following adjustments of the forecast track to the east with each update. Landfall in Hawaii is not expected, but these trends have prompted a hurricane warning in western Hawaii for significant impacts. https://t.co/s9AHcBDMM9 https://t.co/s9AHcBDMM9 pic.twitter.com/jb3fyti7wL https://t.co/jb3fyti7wL — Tomer Burg @burgwx September 7, 2026 https://x.com/burgwx/status/2096980176450265563?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw Lowell’s current north northeastward acceleration will extend through its passage across the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands before another slowdown and another sharp turn – this time toward the west – by midweek. Winds will increase across Kauai and Niihau on Monday as the storm passes west of Kauai County late Monday evening. As of Monday 5 a.m. HST, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP4+shtml/071451.shtml? a Hurricane Warning remained in effect for Kauai and Niihau, and a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Oahu. Strong winds are expected to continue, especially across higher elevations and along both windward and leeward slopes, with the strongest gusts likely occurring early Tuesday morning. Weather will quickly start deteriorating late Monday afternoon into the evening. High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the Hawaiian Islands. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally high rainfall totals through the beginning of the week, increasing the risk of flash flooding. Residents on Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, the Big Island, and Kahoolawe should monitor flood prone areas and rapidly rising streams, which could overflow and produce life threatening flooding through Tuesday afternoon. Based on the NOAA Hurricane History website, Lowell could become the first hurricane on record to pass directly over Niihau, the westernmost of Hawaii’s main inhabited islands, which has fewer than 100 residents. The only major hurricane on record to make landfall in Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki, which struck Kauai on September 11, 1992, with sustained winds of 145 mph 235 km/h and a minimum central pressure of 945 mb. Damage was estimated at $7.3 billion adjusted to 2026 dollars , and seven people lost their lives. Still churning through the remote Eastern North Pacific is a weakening Tropical Storm Marie https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/071432.shtml , which spun off a channel of moisture that fueled locally heavy rains from Southern California into the central United States. Marie is predicted https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/071433.shtml to become post tropical by Wednesday. Atlantic hurricane season remains historically quiet Since 1950, when reliable hurricane records began, the Atlantic has never experienced such an inactive hurricane season through Labor Day. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has accumulated only about 4.5 Accumulated Cyclone Energy ACE units https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated cyclone energy , compared to the historical average of 85.8 by this point in the season—roughly 95% below average. The Atlantic remains exceptionally quiet; with no development expected through at least September 14, it will likely break the record of September 11 for the latest appearance of the first Atlantic hurricane of any season. We're getting into rare territory now without a hurricane in the Atlantic. I'm not expecting one to form over the next week, so we will very likely break the satellite era record ahead. I also included since 1851, but remember, there is a greater uncertainty on the true number of… pic.twitter.com/acwTjHflOV https://t.co/acwTjHflOV — Matt Devitt @MattDevittWX September 6, 2026 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/2096696269808767089?ref src=twsrc%5Etfw Long range forecast models continue to show little change in the pattern that has suppressed tropical development over the past several months. Persistent strong wind shear, combined with repeated outbreaks of Saharan dust, is expected to continue limiting tropical cyclone formation across the basin. Republish This Story Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. Republish this article This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/ . We love it when others republish our articles. Most of our content – other than images – is available to republish for free under a Creative Commons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by nc nd/4.0/deed.en license CC BY NC ND 4.0 . Here’s what to do: by Irene Sans and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections September 7, 2026 Irene Sans is an Emmy winning double certified meteorologist by the American Meteorological Society AMS, CBM, CDM with almost 20 years of experience covering severe weather and climate stories across... More by Irene Sans https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/irenesans/ Bob Henson is a meteorologist and journalist based in Boulder, Colorado. He has written on weather and climate for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Weather Underground, and many freelance... More by Bob Henson https://yaleclimateconnections.org/author/bhenson/