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A second hurricane just sideswiped Hawaii – why the islands’ usual force field seems to be down in 2026
A second hurricane just sideswiped Hawaii – why the islands’ usual force field seems to be down in 2026. Originally published by The Conversation.
By Nicholas Grondin, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of Tampa · 2026-09-09T13:31:59.669Z
A satellite closeup of Hurricane Lowell on Sept. 8, 2026, after it passed just west of Kauai in the Hawaiian Islands. NASA The Hawaiian Islands rarely see significant hurricane damage https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/databook/2022 individual/05/055422.pdf , but they just experienced the effects of their second hurricane in a year as Hurricane Lowell’s eyewall brushed Niihau, west of Kauai, on Sept. 8, 2026. The hurricane brought heavy downpours, high surf and hurricane force wind gusts https://weather.com/2026/09/08/storms/hurricane/hurricane lowell forecast hawaii kauai that pounded both islands, knocking out power and flooding roads https://dod.hawaii.gov/hiema/hurricane lowell updates/ . Tropical storm conditions reached as far as Honolulu on the island of Oahu. Lowell was the 14th named Pacific storm https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/2026 eastern central pacific hurricane season off to a running start a trend not/1708546997296903/ of 2026 and the fifth hurricane. The one that formed right after it, Hurricane Marie, sent big waves to Southern California https://www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts/powerful waves from hurricane marie slam southern california 269434949645 , eroding coastal areas https://ktla.com/news/dana point homes damaged high surf/ , and the Pacific hurricane season doesn’t end until Nov. 30. By some metrics, the season has had the most active start since 2021. In August, a near miss by Hurricane Lala https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/cp01/cp012026.public a.014.shtml brought hurricane force winds https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2026/08/15/hurricane landfall or impact what matters as lala approaches hawaii/ to the Hawaii’s Big Island for the first time since 1871. People joke that the Hawaiian Islands have a force field keeping hurricanes away. But this year, a few things are keeping that force field down. I’m one of the few atmospheric scientists whose research focuses on Pacific hurricanes https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5uEy XoAAAAJ&hl=en . Here’s what I’m seeing in the eastern and central Pacific basins this year. 2 reasons Hawaii is typically spared For decades, Hawaii was thought of as a special place that somehow dodged hurricanes despite its tropical location. While it lies at a similar latitude to other hurricane prone regions, such as the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the Bahamas, significant hurricane damage is rare https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/met/Faculty/businger/poster/hurricane/ there. Hurricanes Dot 1959 https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/atcr/1959atcr.pdf , Iwa 1982 https://dod.hawaii.gov/blog/1982 hurricane lwa response/ , Iniki 1992 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/CP1992 Seasonal TCR.pdf and Lane 2018 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142018 Lane.pdf were the most notable storms https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/7240 in the islands’ recorded history. Iniki is often considered the worst: Its 145 mph wind gusts damaged about 70% of Kauai’s homes https://dod.hawaii.gov/blog/1992 hurricane iniki response/ and businesses and more than 550 buildings on Oahu.
The paths of four notable hurricanes that directly impacted Hawaii. Matthew Fibbi, CC BY ND There are two reasons for Hawaii’s lack of more frequent hurricane impacts. First, Hawaii is a pretty small target over the vast Pacific Ocean. The probability of a hurricane passing over any particular point is low, especially farther from the Mexican coast, since most Pacific hurricanes tend to stay closer to Mexico. Second, the ocean itself forms a hurricane shield of sorts for the islands. The ocean has cooler water temperatures to the east https://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/888522 , where most storms approaching the islands come from. Without warm oceans to provide fuel, hurricanes tend to weaken and fizzle out as they approach the islands.
The cooler waters to the east of Hawaii are evident in this map of average ocean temperature differences. It shows temperatures in Celsius at water depths between 20 meters and 1,000 meters 65 feet and 3,280 feet for the two years from July 1, 2007, through June 30, 2009. Gerard Nihous with data from HYCOM and U.S. Navy, CC BY Hawaii is often affected by weaker and decaying tropical systems, but their impacts are typically limited to localized flooding and large waves. That’s what Hawaii saw from Hurricane Kiko https://www.foxweather.com/weather news/hurricane kiko hawaii beach waves rip currents in 2025 as it weakened passing north of the islands. In 2026, Lala https://abcnews.com/US/tropical storm lala forecast impact hawaiian islands weekend/story?id=135610026 also approached the islands from the east, but it stayed at a lower latitude, which allowed the storm to intensify over warmer than normal waters. Most of the storms that approach the islands from the east are forced to battle the normal “shield” of cooler ocean temperatures located to the east of the islands. Lowell, like Dot, Iniki, and Lane, took a different journey this year. While all four of those storms developed to the east southeast of the islands, they all tracked south of the islands https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?basin=cpac&season=2026&utm before making a sharp turn toward the north or northwest to head toward Hawaii. Dot and Iniki made landfall on Kauai https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/09/04/hawaii news/hurricane lowells expected turn resembles paths of iniki dot/ , one of the westernmost islands. Iniki was the only known landfall of a major hurricane – a Category 3 storm or higher – in the state. In 2018, Hurricane Lane turned toward Oahu, but it weakened due to increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018 08 27 reason for demise of hurricane lane – including increased vertical wind shear https://theconversation.com/what is wind shear an atmospheric scientist explains how it can tear apart hurricanes and why el nino ramps it up 213527 , with faster winds near the top of the storm than the bottom, making it harder for the storm to keep its organized structure – and a drier, more stable air mass. While it didn’t make landfall, Lane still brought record breaking rainfall to the islands, with as much as 58 inches 1.47 meters falling on the Big Island. Why Lowell made a sharp turn south of Hawaii In the eastern and central Pacific, the most common tropical storm track https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/kristen/monsoon/eastpac.png is a nearly straight line toward the west, driven by an atmospheric feature known as the Hawaiian High or subtropical ridge https://guides.library.kapiolani.hawaii.edu/apdl/earth/high . This semipermanent high pressure system sits to the northeast of Hawaii.
A map of tropical storms that were in the vicinity of Hawaii at some point in 2026, as of Sept. 8. Hurricane Lowell 12 made a sharp turn to the north before passing Kauai. Hurricane Lala 1 passed to the south of the islands. Storms originating in the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific are named from separate lists, which is why 2026 had two Pacific hurricanes starting with ‘L’. NOAA The Hawaiian High’s sinking air makes it harder for hurricanes to draw heat and moisture from the ocean. The result is pleasant conditions for the islands while hurricanes are steered around the edge of the high pressure system. The typical pattern around the high directs storms to the west, missing the islands. However, occasionally, low pressure troughs can migrate southward and turn a storm toward the north, increasing its acceleration in the process, as happened with Lowell https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep12/ep122026.discus.032.shtml . The role of El Niño Another important player on the Pacific hurricane scene is El Niño. During strong El Niño years, like 2026, the tropical Pacific is much warmer than normal. The ocean tends to be busier with hurricanes during El Niño, while the Atlantic is typically quieter https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/how does el nino impact atlantic hurricane season/ – as we’re seeing in 2026. Researchers at the University of Hawaii Manoa identified a significant increase in the frequency https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/10/10/1520 0442 1997 010 2683 tcoitv 2.0.co 2.xml and likelihood of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Hawaii during El Niño years compared with other years. They hypothesize that El Niño years favor more Hawaiian systems due to increases in atmospheric humidity and favorable wind patterns in the region.
Three hurricanes – Lowell, Karina and Marie – in the Pacific Ocean at the same time was a rare sight. Lowell reached Category 5 strength; Karina Category 4; and Marie was a tropical storm at the time the satellite image was captured on Sept. 6, 2026, but reached Category 2 strength. Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory The most notable change during El Niño years is the warmer than normal ocean temperatures, particularly to the south and east of Hawaii. These warmer temperatures supported Lala intensifying into Category 1 hurricane as it approached the Big Island from the east and passed just south of the chain. Multiple studies have also noted that increases in hurricane activity https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL011614 across the western portion of the eastern Pacific and the central Pacific generally are seen during El Niño years as well, such as in 2015 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070597 . What’s likely for the rest of the Pacific season? Generally, as the season progresses into fall, hurricanes near Hawaii become less likely, while the risk of hurricane landfalls rises for the Pacific coast of Mexico https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ . In recent years, several powerful Pacific storms have made landfall in Mexico, including Hurricanes Willa 2018 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP242018 Willa.pdf , Roslyn 2022 https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/hurricane roslyn/ and Otis 2023 https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane otis causes catastrophic damage acapulco mexico , all of which hit during the last third of October. The Atlantic, meanwhile, is forecast to remain much less active than normal https://www.noaa.gov/news release/noaa maintains prediction for below normal atlantic hurricane season , even through the peak months of its 2026 hurricane season.
Nicholas Grondin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.