Weather
Tucson, AZ Weather Oct. 11-12: Tropical Moisture Arrives
Tucson, AZ – Tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Rachel is expected to increase rain chances across southeastern Arizona this weekend into early next week, with the bulk of the rainfall curren
By Elliot Vaughn · 2026-10-07T12:53:12.741Z
Tucson, AZ – Tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Rachel is expected to increase rain chances across southeastern Arizona this weekend into early next week, with the bulk of the rainfall currently favored from Sunday into Monday.
According to the National Weather Service in Tucson, Rachel was a Category 1 hurricane in the eastern Pacific as of Wednesday morning, Oct. 7. The storm is expected to turn northeast beginning Friday and head toward Baja California.
Moisture from the system is forecast to interact with an upper level low, bringing increasing rain chances to southeastern Arizona beginning Saturday.
Current forecast rainfall totals are generally between 0.25 and 1 inch, although localized higher amounts are possible. The NWS expects most of that rainfall to occur Sunday into Monday.
The forecast probability table shows rain chances increasing substantially at many locations over the weekend, but the timing and probabilities vary across southeastern Arizona.
Considerable uncertainty remains over the event's specific impacts. The NWS said exact rainfall amounts, the timing of the heaviest rain and potential impacts are not yet clear.
Rachel's projected track toward Baja does not mean the hurricane itself is forecast to strike Tucson. Instead, tropical moisture moving north into Arizona is expected to help support the increased precipitation chances.
Residents should monitor updated forecasts through the end of the week as forecasters refine the timing and rainfall amounts. For now, Saturday marks the beginning of increasing rain chances, with Sunday into Monday favored for the most widespread rainfall.