Weather
Tucson, AZ Weather Alert: 60% Rain Chance Thursday, Oct. 22
Tucson, AZ – A developing storm system is expected to bring showers, possible thunderstorms and gusty winds to the Tucson metropolitan area Wednesday, October 21, through Thursday, October 22. Rain ch
By Nora Whitfield · 2026-10-21T10:37:46.762Z
Tucson, AZ – A developing storm system is expected to bring showers, possible thunderstorms and gusty winds to the Tucson metropolitan area Wednesday, October 21, through Thursday, October 22. Rain chances increase to 60% Thursday, with afternoon temperatures reaching 85 degrees before cooler and sunnier conditions arrive for the weekend.
According to the National Weather Service in Tucson, showers and thunderstorms could develop Wednesday afternoon, with precipitation becoming more likely Thursday. The forecast calls for showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. Thursday, followed by another chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Thursday Brings the Greatest Storm Chance The approaching weather system is part of a broader Pacific storm pattern bringing increased moisture and unsettled conditions across portions of the southwestern United States.
Wednesday's forecast includes a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11 a.m., with a high near 88 degrees.
Another 40% precipitation chance continues Wednesday night, particularly after 11 p.m., as temperatures fall near 68 degrees.
Thursday brings the highest rain probability of the period at 60%, with thunderstorms possible and southwest winds increasing during the afternoon. Wind gusts could reach 24 mph.
Residents across Tucson and surrounding Pima County communities, including Oro Valley, Marana and Sahuarita, should monitor updated local forecasts as thunderstorms develop.
The broader Southwest faces an elevated excessive rainfall threat, but the supplied Tucson forecast does not establish a city specific Flood Watch or Flash Flood Warning.
Tucson Five Day Weather Outlook Wednesday 10/21: Mostly cloudy skies accompany a high near 88 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms become possible after 11 a.m., with a 40% precipitation chance. Wednesday night remains mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low near 68 degrees.
Thursday 10/22: Showers are likely, with thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. The precipitation chance reaches 60%, with a high near 85 degrees. Southwest winds could gust to 24 mph. Thursday night brings a 40% chance of precipitation and a low near 62 degrees.
Friday 10/23: Sunshine returns across Tucson, with an afternoon high near 79 degrees. Friday night becomes mostly clear, with temperatures falling to approximately 58 degrees.
Saturday 10/24: Sunny skies continue, with an afternoon high near 77 degrees, marking an 11 degree decrease from Wednesday's forecast high. Saturday night remains clear, with temperatures falling near 57 degrees.
Sunday 10/25: Another sunny day is expected, with afternoon temperatures reaching approximately 79 degrees. Sunday night remains mostly clear, with a low near 59 degrees.
Extended Outlook Favors Additional Moisture NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for October 28 through November 3 favors above normal precipitation across southern Arizona, including the Tucson region.
The accompanying temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures across portions of southern Arizona during that period, suggesting warmer conditions could return after the immediate weekend cooldown.
These outlooks represent probabilities over several days rather than guaranteed rainfall totals or specific daily temperatures.
What Residents Should Know Drivers should remain alert for changing road conditions Wednesday and Thursday, particularly during thunderstorms and periods of heavier rainfall.
Although widespread flooding is not established by the supplied local forecast, residents should avoid flooded roadways if water accumulates in low lying areas or normally dry washes.
Outdoor activities may require adjustments Thursday, but conditions are expected to improve considerably Friday through Sunday.
Updated forecasts and official weather alerts are available at weather.gov/twc.