Weather
Southwest Weather: AZ-NV Rain Chances Rise Oct 20-24
Phoenix, AZ – A developing temperature divide across the Southwest could bring cooler than normal conditions to Nevada and parts of Arizona next week, while New Mexico remains on the warmer side of th
By Sophie Caldwell · 2026-10-15T10:50:24.897Z
Phoenix, AZ – A developing temperature divide across the Southwest could bring cooler than normal conditions to Nevada and parts of Arizona next week, while New Mexico remains on the warmer side of the pattern. At the same time, NOAA is favoring above normal precipitation across much of the region from Tuesday, October 20, through Saturday, October 24.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, temperature and precipitation outlooks issued Wednesday, October 14, show one of the nation's more pronounced contrasts across the Southwest. Below normal temperatures are favored in Nevada and western Arizona, while above normal temperatures are favored across New Mexico. Meanwhile, wetter than normal conditions are favored across all three states.
Nevada and western Arizona face cooler conditions Nevada falls largely within NOAA's below normal temperature outlook, with probabilities generally ranging from 33% to 50%. Parts of western and southern Nevada, including areas around Las Vegas, lie within the cooler temperature zone.
Western Arizona also falls within the below normal temperature area, particularly toward the Nevada and California borders.
However, the temperature signal becomes less pronounced farther east across Arizona. Central and eastern portions of the state transition toward near normal conditions, while areas closer to New Mexico approach the warmer than normal outlook.
This means Phoenix and Tucson should not automatically be expected to experience the same temperature pattern as Las Vegas or western Arizona.
New Mexico sits on the warmer side New Mexico presents a different forecast picture.
Much of the state falls within NOAA's above normal temperature categories, with probabilities generally ranging from 40% to 50%, strengthening toward eastern sections.
Communities around Albuquerque and Santa Fe are positioned within the warmer temperature outlook, contrasting with the cooler conditions favored farther west.
The divide reflects a broad geographic difference in the probability of temperatures exceeding or falling below historical averages. It does not establish specific daily high temperatures or the arrival of a cold front.
Wetter outlook stretches across the Southwest Precipitation is where the regional forecast becomes particularly noteworthy.
Southern Nevada, western Arizona and nearby Utah fall within a broad area favoring above normal precipitation. The strongest signal, reaching the 60% to 70% category, is centered over portions of Nevada and Utah.
Much of Arizona also favors above normal precipitation, although the probability categories weaken toward the state's southern and eastern sections.
New Mexico shares the wetter than normal tendency, with probabilities generally ranging from 40% to 60%.
For residents traveling between Las Vegas, Phoenix and Albuquerque, the outlook suggests monitoring future forecasts for changing weather conditions.
However, NOAA's extended outlook does not predict specific rainfall amounts, flash flooding, thunderstorms or individual storm arrival times.
The biggest takeaway is the contrast between cooler western areas and warmer eastern areas, with wetter than normal conditions favored across much of the Southwest.
Would you welcome cooler temperatures and additional rainfall, or are you hoping the Southwest stays warm and dry through late October?