Weather
Southwest Weather Alert: Arizona, New Mexico Face Rainfall Shift Oct. 16–20
PHOENIX, AZ – A warmer than normal October weather pattern could affect much of the southwestern United States beginning Friday, Oct. 16, while federal forecasters anticipate sharply different precipi
By Cameron Hayes · 2026-10-11T14:16:58.870Z
PHOENIX, AZ – A warmer than normal October weather pattern could affect much of the southwestern United States beginning Friday, Oct. 16, while federal forecasters anticipate sharply different precipitation probabilities across the region through Tuesday, Oct. 20.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, the 6 10 day temperature outlook issued Saturday, Oct. 10, favors above normal temperatures across Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and southern California during the five day period.
The warm signal is particularly pronounced across California, Nevada, Utah and western Arizona, where probabilities of above normal temperatures are generally higher than across portions of eastern New Mexico.
Although specific daytime highs and overnight lows are not provided, the outlook suggests temperatures are more likely to exceed typical mid October averages across much of the Southwest.
Rainfall Outlook Shows Regional Divide
NOAA's accompanying precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above normal precipitation across portions of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico.
The wetter signal is most evident near the U.S. Mexico border, including areas of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico.
Meanwhile, northern Arizona and portions of Utah, Nevada and northern New Mexico favor below normal precipitation, creating a contrast between the northern and southern Southwest.
Parts of central Arizona and New Mexico fall within a transition zone where near normal precipitation is favored.
The outlook does not identify specific storm systems, rainfall totals or the timing of individual precipitation events.
What Residents and Travelers Should Expect
The warmer temperature outlook could influence outdoor activities, hiking, camping and weekend travel across desert and mountain communities.
Travelers along Interstate 10, Interstate 17 and Interstate 40 should monitor updated forecasts, particularly where rainfall probabilities are elevated.
However, the outlook does not establish a widespread flooding threat, severe thunderstorm outbreak or record breaking heat event.
Residents should continue checking National Weather Service forecasts as Friday approaches for more precise local temperatures, precipitation chances and changing travel conditions.