Weather
Arizona Winter Outlook 2026-27: Phoenix, Tucson Rain Chances Rise
Phoenix, AZ – Arizona's winter outlook for 2026 27 is showing signs of a potentially wetter season, with federal forecasters favoring above normal precipitation across much of the state, including Pho
By Evan Cross · 2026-10-16T16:22:51.220Z
Phoenix, AZ – Arizona's winter outlook for 2026 27 is showing signs of a potentially wetter season, with federal forecasters favoring above normal precipitation across much of the state, including Phoenix, Tucson and portions of northern Arizona.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal precipitation across Arizona from November 2026 through January 2027.
What does NOAA predict for Arizona this winter?
The precipitation outlook places much of Arizona within a region showing approximately 40% to 50% probabilities of above normal precipitation, with some areas carrying slightly lower probabilities.
That means communities across Maricopa County, Pima County and northern Arizona have increased odds of receiving more precipitation than their seasonal averages.
Meanwhile, NOAA's temperature outlook shows no clear preference for above or below normal temperatures across much of Arizona.
Parts of western and northwestern Arizona have a slight tilt toward warmer than normal conditions.
Could Flagstaff see more snow this winter?
For northern Arizona, including Flagstaff and communities near the Mogollon Rim, a wetter seasonal pattern could provide opportunities for winter snowfall.
However, above normal precipitation does not automatically translate into above normal snowfall. Temperatures during individual storms will determine whether precipitation falls as rain or snow.
The National Weather Service also reports that very strong El Niño conditions are highly likely to continue into winter.
El Niño can influence storm tracks across the southern United States, sometimes favoring wetter conditions in the Southwest.
For Phoenix and Tucson, additional winter rainfall could affect roadways and low water crossings during stronger storms.
Travelers along Interstate 17, Interstate 40 and mountain highways should remain alert for changing winter conditions.
NOAA emphasizes that seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not guaranteed weather outcomes. More detailed forecasts will become available as individual winter storms approach.