Weather
Arizona Weather Alert: Phoenix, AZ Rain Chances Rise Oct 20-22
Phoenix, AZ – The Phoenix metropolitan area is heading toward a potentially wetter stretch of weather next week, with rain chances increasing to 30% by Wednesday, October 21, and continuing Thursday a
By Elliot Vaughn · 2026-10-16T09:39:35.504Z
Phoenix, AZ – The Phoenix metropolitan area is heading toward a potentially wetter stretch of weather next week, with rain chances increasing to 30% by Wednesday, October 21, and continuing Thursday as temperatures gradually cool. The developing pattern follows several days of mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the 80s. Residents across Maricopa County, including Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and nearby communities, could see changing conditions during the middle of the workweek, although widespread rainfall is not guaranteed.
According to the National Weather Service in Phoenix, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms develops Monday night and continues Tuesday before precipitation chances increase Wednesday and Thursday. The forecast calls for a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a 30% chance of showers Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to reach 85 degrees Tuesday, 81 Wednesday and 77 Thursday, marking a gradual cooling trend across the Valley.
Rain Chances Increase During the Middle of Next Week Wednesday, October 21, currently represents the clearest shift toward wetter conditions in the extended forecast. Partly sunny skies are expected, with a high near 81 degrees and a 30% chance of showers. East southeast winds around 10 mph should become south southwest during the afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching 25 mph.
The possibility of precipitation continues Wednesday night, when the chance of showers remains at 30%. Temperatures are expected to fall to approximately 65 degrees, providing a cooler evening across the Phoenix area. The forecast does not establish rainfall totals or indicate that heavy rain or flooding will occur.
Thursday, October 22, brings another 30% chance of showers, although mostly sunny skies are expected between any periods of precipitation. Afternoon temperatures should reach approximately 77 degrees, making Thursday the coolest daytime period shown in the supplied forecast. That would represent an 11 degree decline from Friday's forecast high of 88 degrees, spread across six days rather than occurring suddenly.
What the Changes Mean for Valley Residents The developing midweek rain chances could affect outdoor plans and routine travel, particularly if showers occur during commuting hours. Drivers using Interstate 10, Interstate 17, Loop 101 and Loop 202 should monitor updated forecasts as the timing of any precipitation becomes clearer.
Rainfall could create localized wet pavement and reduced visibility where showers develop, but the current forecast does not indicate road closures or significant travel disruptions. With precipitation probabilities remaining at 30%, many locations could experience little or no measurable rainfall.
The middle of the week also offers a break from the warmer afternoon temperatures expected earlier in the forecast period. Monday should reach 86 degrees under mostly sunny skies, followed by 85 Tuesday. By Thursday, the projected high of 77 degrees would provide noticeably cooler conditions for outdoor work, recreation and afternoon activities.
Weekend Wind Advisory and Weather Transition Before the midweek changes arrive, the Phoenix area faces a separate near term wind concern. The National Weather Service issued a Wind Advisory for Friday, October 16, from 8 a.m. until 3 p.m. MST, covering portions of south central Arizona, including the Phoenix metropolitan area.
East winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph, were forecast under the advisory. Officials warned that blowing dust could briefly reduce visibility below one mile, while crosswinds could make driving difficult for larger vehicles. Residents should secure lightweight outdoor objects and exercise caution during the advisory period.
Saturday brings a 20% chance of afternoon showers, with breezy conditions and a high near 81 degrees. Sunday should be mostly sunny and warmer, reaching 84 degrees, before another mostly sunny day Monday.
The most meaningful longer range development remains the return of precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday, accompanied by gradually falling temperatures. Residents planning travel or outdoor activities during the middle of next week should watch for updated rainfall timing and changes in forecast confidence.
Will the possibility of cooler temperatures and showers affect your plans around Phoenix next week?
Five Day Weather Outlook Saturday 10/17: Mostly cloudy skies are expected with a high near 81 degrees, a 20% chance of showers after 2 p.m. and east winds gusting to 25 mph; Saturday night brings a low near 70 degrees and a continued 20% shower chance.
Sunday 10/18: Mostly sunny skies return with a high around 84 degrees and east winds of 5 to 10 mph; partly cloudy conditions are expected Sunday night, with temperatures falling to approximately 70 degrees.
Monday 10/19: Mostly sunny conditions continue with a high near 86 degrees and light east winds becoming southerly during the afternoon; Monday night brings a low around 71 degrees and a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday 10/20: Mostly sunny skies and a high near 85 degrees are expected, with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m.; Tuesday night brings a low near 69 degrees and a 30% chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday 10/21: Partly sunny conditions are expected with a high around 81 degrees, a 30% chance of showers and afternoon wind gusts reaching 25 mph; Wednesday night remains partly cloudy with a 30% shower chance and a low near 65 degrees.
Extended Weather Outlook Thursday, October 22: Mostly sunny skies are expected with a 30% chance of showers and a high near 77 degrees. Southeast winds around 5 mph should become westerly during the afternoon.