Weather
Arizona, New Mexico Rain Alert: Heavy Rain Risk After Halloween, November 1st
Phoenix, AZ Residents across Arizona and New Mexico could face an increasing threat of heavy rainfall immediately after Halloween, as federal forecasters highlight a moderate risk of significant preci
By Avery Collins · 2026-10-23T13:09:55.549Z
Phoenix, AZ Residents across Arizona and New Mexico could face an increasing threat of heavy rainfall immediately after Halloween, as federal forecasters highlight a moderate risk of significant precipitation developing across portions of the Southwest during the first days of November.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the heavy precipitation outlook released Thursday, Oct. 22, identifies a moderate risk across portions of Arizona and New Mexico from Sunday, Nov. 1, through Monday, Nov. 2.
The moderate risk designation represents a 40% 60% forecast probability of heavy precipitation meeting the agency's criteria, making the highlighted Southwest region one of the areas of concern in the national outlook.
The timing places the greatest risk immediately after Halloween on Saturday, Oct. 31, although surrounding areas could experience unsettled weather earlier in the weekend.
A broader slight risk zone extends across additional portions of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as parts of the Four Corners region, from Saturday, Oct. 31, through Monday, Nov. 2.
That designation represents a 20% 40% probability of heavy precipitation during the forecast period.
Areas and forecast windows to monitor include:
Arizona: Moderate risk in portions of the state November 1 2. New Mexico: Moderate risk in portions of the state November 1 2. Four Corners region: Slight risk across portions of the region October 31 November 2. Heavy rainfall in the Southwest can create hazardous travel conditions, particularly where runoff moves rapidly through normally dry washes, low water crossings and other flood prone areas.
However, the outlook does not guarantee flooding or indicate that every community within the highlighted region will experience heavy rain.
The forecast also does not establish whether rain will directly affect Halloween evening activities.
Specific rainfall amounts, storm timing and potential local impacts will become clearer as the forecast period approaches.
Residents across Arizona and New Mexico should monitor forecast updates through Halloween weekend, particularly those planning outdoor events or travel on Sunday and Monday.
Additional information is available through the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices.