Weather
Southwest Weather: Flagstaff Could See Snow Behind Cold Front Nov. 3-9
Flagstaff, AZ – Portions of the Southwest could see increased precipitation during the first full week of November, with a passing cold front potentially bringing rain to lower elevations and snow to
By Caleb Mercer · 2026-10-27T09:54:32.723Z
Flagstaff, AZ – Portions of the Southwest could see increased precipitation during the first full week of November, with a passing cold front potentially bringing rain to lower elevations and snow to higher terrain in northern Arizona. The developing pattern could affect areas around Flagstaff and the surrounding mountains during Nov. 3 9, although snowfall timing, amounts and elevations remain uncertain.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks issued Monday, Oct. 26, provide a broader look at precipitation trends and potential weather hazards during early November. Above normal precipitation is a possibility across portions of the Southwest, but the outlook does not establish that every community will receive significant rain or snow.
Northern Arizona is an area to watch because elevations vary considerably across relatively short distances. Communities around Flagstaff, the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain near the San Francisco Peaks could experience different precipitation types depending on temperatures and the timing of colder air behind a passing front.
If sufficient moisture remains in place as temperatures fall, rain could change to snow at higher elevations. Lower elevation communities could remain primarily wet, while mountain locations have a greater potential for accumulating snow.
The potential for snow should not be interpreted as a confirmed winter storm. The longer range outlook does not establish a specific snow level, accumulation forecast or the timing of a rain to snow transition around Flagstaff.
The distinction also matters for precipitation probabilities. An above normal precipitation outlook indicates increased odds that total precipitation will exceed the seasonal average over the specified period. It does not provide a daily chance of rain or snow, and it does not guarantee that a particular cold front will produce significant precipitation.
For travelers, northern Arizona's higher elevations will be worth monitoring as forecasts become more specific. However, the current outlook does not establish hazardous road conditions, highway closures or winter weather alerts.
Residents across northern Arizona should watch updated National Weather Service forecasts as Nov. 3 9 approaches. Those forecasts will help determine whether a cold front brings measurable rain, where temperatures could support snow and whether any accumulation becomes likely.