Weather
Flagstaff, AZ Flood Watch: Heavy Rain, Storms Oct. 21-22
Flagstaff, AZ – A widespread Flood Watch is in effect across northern and central Arizona Wednesday, October 21, as a powerful surge of moisture brings heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and the potential
By Evan Cross · 2026-10-21T10:38:23.575Z
Flagstaff, AZ – A widespread Flood Watch is in effect across northern and central Arizona Wednesday, October 21, as a powerful surge of moisture brings heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and the potential for dangerous flash flooding. Flagstaff faces a 90% chance of precipitation Wednesday, increasing to 100% Wednesday night and Thursday, while communities across the region prepare for possible flooding through Thursday evening.
According to the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, the Flood Watch covers northern and central Arizona, including Flagstaff, Prescott, Sedona, Cottonwood, Payson, Winslow, Holbrook, Page and communities near the Grand Canyon. The watch runs from 5 a.m. Wednesday until 11 p.m. Thursday, with flash flooding possible in creeks, normally dry washes, swimming holes and recently burned areas.
Flash Flood Threat Extends Across Northern Arizona Forecasters say an upper level trough is drawing deep subtropical and tropical moisture into Arizona, creating favorable conditions for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
The National Weather Service warns that stronger thunderstorms could produce flash flooding, while prolonged rainfall may raise water levels in streams, rivers and washes.
Low water crossings could become flooded, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and outdoor recreation.
The Weather Prediction Center has also identified a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the Four Corners region Thursday. That designation represents at least a 40% probability of excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding within the designated risk area, not a 40% flooding probability for every Arizona community.
Flagstaff Five Day Weather Outlook Wednesday 10/21: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected, with a 90% precipitation chance and a high near 61 degrees. South winds increase to 6 to 11 mph, with gusts reaching 25 mph. Wednesday night brings a 100% precipitation chance, patchy fog and a low near 47 degrees.
Thursday 10/22: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm continue, with a 100% precipitation chance and a high near 59 degrees. South winds reach 6 to 15 mph, gusting to 29 mph. Thursday night carries an 80% precipitation chance, decreasing later, with a low near 41 degrees.
Friday 10/23: Sunshine returns to Flagstaff, with a high near 56 degrees. Southwest winds could gust to 18 mph. Friday night becomes mostly clear, with temperatures dropping to approximately 37 degrees.
Saturday 10/24: Mostly sunny skies are expected, with a high near 55 degrees. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms develops after 11 a.m. Saturday night remains mostly clear, with temperatures falling near 35 degrees.
Sunday 10/25: Sunny skies return, with afternoon temperatures reaching approximately 54 degrees. Sunday night remains mostly clear, with a low near 36 degrees.
Longer Range Outlook Favors Additional Moisture NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for October 28 through November 3 favors above normal precipitation across Arizona, including the northern portion of the state.
The accompanying temperature outlook places much of northern Arizona in a near normal temperature category, suggesting temperatures could remain closer to seasonal averages during the final days of October.
These outlooks describe probabilities over several days rather than guaranteed additional flooding or specific rainfall amounts.
Residents Urged to Prepare The National Weather Service advises residents to have a reliable way to receive Flash Flood Warnings and be prepared to act quickly if conditions deteriorate.
Drivers should never attempt to cross flooded roadways, especially at low water crossings where rapidly moving water can become life threatening.
Visitors exploring canyons, creeks and normally dry washes should remain alert because flooding can develop quickly, even when heavy rain is falling upstream.
Updated forecasts and official warnings are available at weather.gov/flagstaff.