Weather
Arizona Weather: Wet November Outlook Oct. 26–Nov. 1
Flagstaff, AZ – Northern Arizona faces several days of unsettled weather, with Flagstaff forecast to experience a 90% chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday, possible thunderstorms and wind gusts re
By Lauren Beckett · 2026-10-19T09:59:09.816Z
Flagstaff, AZ – Northern Arizona faces several days of unsettled weather, with Flagstaff forecast to experience a 90% chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday, possible thunderstorms and wind gusts reaching 34 mph. Temperatures could fall near freezing by Friday night, even as NOAA's Oct. 26–Nov. 1 outlook favors warmer than normal average temperatures and above normal precipitation across much of Arizona as November begins.
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the eight to 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks issued Sunday, Oct. 18, favor above normal temperatures across much of Arizona during Oct. 26–Nov. 1. The precipitation outlook also favors above normal totals, placing the state within a broad southwestern region with increased potential for wetter than usual conditions.
Flagstaff faces 90% rain chances and gusty winds The National Weather Service forecast for Flagstaff shows Monday reaching approximately 61 degrees, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m.
Tuesday brings sunshine and a high near 63 degrees, although showers and thunderstorms become possible again Tuesday night.
Rain chances increase sharply Wednesday, when showers and a possible thunderstorm are forecast. The chance of precipitation reaches 90%, with a high near 60 degrees and wind gusts potentially reaching 26 mph.
Wednesday night carries another 90% chance of precipitation, with a low near 44 degrees.
Thursday remains unsettled, with showers and a possible thunderstorm, a high near 54 degrees and a 90% precipitation probability.
Southwest winds could increase to 15–20 mph during the afternoon, with gusts reaching 34 mph.
Showers remain possible Thursday night before conditions begin improving Friday.
By Friday afternoon, Flagstaff is forecast to reach approximately 51 degrees under sunny skies.
Friday night brings a low near 31 degrees, followed by a high near 52 Saturday and another chilly overnight low around 32 degrees.
These readings could bring freezing conditions to some locations, although the supplied forecast does not establish an official freeze warning.
Northern Arizona faces a different pattern than Phoenix Flagstaff's elevation, approximately 7,000 feet, makes its local weather considerably different from lower elevation communities across Arizona.
While the immediate forecast includes chilly nights and possible thunderstorms, NOAA's longer range outlook favors above normal average temperatures across much of the state.
That includes northern Arizona, although the strength of the temperature signal varies geographically.
The extended precipitation outlook also favors above normal totals across much of Arizona, including Flagstaff and surrounding portions of Coconino County.
The wetter than normal tendency extends across the Southwest, where NOAA's maps show increased precipitation probabilities.
However, the outlook does not establish specific rainfall amounts, snowfall totals or daily storm timing during Oct. 26–Nov. 1.
What the November outlook means for Arizona For Flagstaff residents, the immediate concern is the combination of widespread shower chances, possible thunderstorms and gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday.
The colder nighttime temperatures expected Friday and Saturday could also affect outdoor activities and temperature sensitive plants.
Separately, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's Oct. 19 discussion highlights locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding potential across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico on Monday. That geographically limited concern does not apply automatically to Flagstaff.
The longer range outlook suggests much of Arizona could enter November with warmer than normal average temperatures and increased precipitation potential.
Importantly, above normal temperatures do not rule out freezing nights in higher elevation communities.
Updated National Weather Service forecasts will help determine whether additional precipitation develops during Oct. 26–Nov. 1 and how temperatures vary across northern Arizona.
Are you ready for Flagstaff's colder fall nights, or are you hoping warmer afternoons return as November begins?