Weather
Arizona Flash Flood Alert Sunday: Heavy Rain Risk Increases Oct 11th
Flagstaff, AZ – A developing weekend storm system could bring dangerous flash flooding to portions of Arizona as moisture associated with Tropical Storm Rachel spreads across the state, producing wide
By Cameron Hayes · 2026-10-10T12:16:57.379Z
Flagstaff, AZ – A developing weekend storm system could bring dangerous flash flooding to portions of Arizona as moisture associated with Tropical Storm Rachel spreads across the state, producing widespread showers, thunderstorms and periods of heavy rainfall through Sunday, October 11.
According to the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, rain will move from southwest to northeast Saturday, with precipitation becoming more widespread and intense as the weekend progresses.
Much of Arizona faces a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Saturday , indicating that isolated flash flooding is possible, particularly in vulnerable locations.
However, the threat increases Sunday when portions of western and northern Arizona move into a Slight Risk category, representing at least a 15% probability of excessive rainfall capable of causing flash flooding within 25 miles of a location.
Communities around Flagstaff, Prescott, Sedona, Williams, Kingman and the Grand Canyon region could experience periods of heavy rainfall.
Rain chances Sunday are particularly high across northern Arizona.
The Weather Service forecasts precipitation probabilities reaching 100% around Williams, Sedona, Camp Verde and Payson, with Flagstaff approaching 99%.
Prescott could see rain chances near 100%, while communities around Seligman and the Grand Canyon also face a high likelihood of precipitation.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase throughout Sunday, with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall potentially producing rapid runoff.
The greatest flash flooding concern is across western Arizona, although localized flooding remains possible elsewhere.
Low water crossings, washes, canyon areas and flood prone roadways could become hazardous during heavier thunderstorms.
The Weather Service emphasizes that rainfall intensity and location will determine where flooding develops, meaning not every community within the highlighted risk area will experience flooding.
Residents planning weekend travel or outdoor activities should monitor updated forecasts and avoid flooded roads.
For the latest alerts and forecast information, visit weather.gov/flagstaff .