Weather
Alabama Winter Outlook 2026-27: NOAA Favors More Rain
Birmingham, AL – Alabama's winter outlook for 2026 27 is beginning to take shape, with federal forecasters favoring increased precipitation across the state while temperatures could trend warmer in no
By Jordan Mercer · 2026-10-16T16:16:25.171Z
Birmingham, AL – Alabama's winter outlook for 2026 27 is beginning to take shape, with federal forecasters favoring increased precipitation across the state while temperatures could trend warmer in northern areas. The developing pattern raises questions about rain, snow and freezing weather for Birmingham, Huntsville, Montgomery and Mobile.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, seasonal outlooks issued Thursday, October 15, favor above normal precipitation across Alabama from November 2026 through January 2027.
The precipitation outlook places much of Alabama within an area showing approximately a 40% to 50% probability of above normal precipitation, with the strongest signals extending across portions of the Southeast.
For Birmingham and surrounding Jefferson County, the outlook suggests wetter than normal conditions are favored during the three month period.
Huntsville and northern Alabama also lean toward increased precipitation, while Montgomery and Mobile remain within the broader wetter than normal outlook.
What about temperatures and snowfall?
NOAA's temperature outlook shows a modest preference for above normal temperatures across northern Alabama, including Huntsville and Birmingham. Farther south, Montgomery and Mobile fall within an area where near normal temperatures are favored.
However, warmer seasonal averages do not mean winter storms are impossible.
Alabama can still experience freezing rain, sleet, snowfall and dangerous cold outbreaks, particularly across northern counties.
Forecasters are also monitoring very strong El Niño conditions that are highly likely to continue into winter. El Niño can influence southern storm tracks and increase precipitation opportunities across parts of the Southeast.
Importantly, NOAA's precipitation outlook includes all forms of precipitation and does not provide specific snowfall totals.
Drivers using Interstate 65, Interstate 20, Interstate 59 and Interstate 85 should remain prepared for occasional winter weather disruptions.
Residents should monitor updated National Weather Service forecasts as winter approaches, particularly when individual storm systems become clearer.