Albuquerque, New Mexico – New Mexico is expected to remain in a warm and active monsoon pattern between July 23 and July 27, with above-normal temperatures combining with increasing moisture to produce daily rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. While the summer heat will continue to build through the day, thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during the afternoon, bringing localized heavy rainfall, dangerous lightning, gusty winds and the potential for flash flooding, particularly in mountainous areas and recent burn scars.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in its 6-10 Day Outlook issued July 17, New Mexico is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during the July 23-27 period. The state is also included in an area favoring above-normal precipitation, reflecting an enhanced monsoon pattern capable of producing more frequent showers and thunderstorms than is typical for late July.
In Albuquerque, temperatures are expected to climb above seasonal averages before thunderstorms develop over the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and move into the Rio Grande Valley during the afternoon and evening. Some storms could produce brief but intense rainfall, creating localized flooding on low-water crossings and arroyos while reducing visibility for drivers along Interstate 25 and Interstate 40. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will also be possible with stronger storms.
Farther south, Las Cruces is expected to experience another stretch of hot afternoons followed by increasing thunderstorm activity. Storms developing over surrounding mountain ranges may drift into the Mesilla Valley, producing heavy downpours, isolated flash flooding and blowing dust ahead of rainfall. Outdoor recreation in the Organ Mountains and surrounding desert areas could be interrupted by rapidly developing thunderstorms.
The warmer and wetter monsoon pattern is expected to extend across the state, including Santa Fe, Roswell, Farmington, Clovis, Hobbs, Alamogordo, Gallup and Silver City. While rainfall will vary significantly from one community to another, storms that do develop may produce locally heavy precipitation capable of causing rapid rises in normally dry washes and low-lying areas.
Although the Climate Prediction Center outlook does not pinpoint the exact timing or location of daily thunderstorms, confidence continues to increase that New Mexico will remain in a warmer-than-normal and wetter-than-normal pattern through July 27. Residents should plan outdoor activities during the morning when possible, avoid flooded roadways, and monitor National Weather Service forecasts for updated flash flood watches, severe thunderstorm warnings and other monsoon-related advisories.
