Buffalo, New York – Spring may arrive on the calendar, but western New York could still see snow showers flying before steady rain and milder air fully take over.
According to NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook released February 19, western New York falls within an above normal precipitation zone for March-April-May 2026. The wetter signal stretches across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, increasing the likelihood of repeated storm systems tracking near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through the heart of spring.
For Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Jamestown, colder air lingering across the Upper Great Lakes may allow lake-enhanced snow events to persist through March and potentially into early April. Overnight systems could briefly coat elevated surfaces and reduce visibility along I-90, I-190 and portions of the New York State Thruway before daytime temperatures push readings above freezing.
Rochester and Batavia are more likely to experience chilly rain events as the season progresses, but sharp cold snaps could still mix in wet snow, especially during nighttime precipitation. With above normal precipitation favored, periodic heavier rain may also raise water levels along smaller creeks and tributaries feeding into Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Temperature trends lean closer to seasonal averages overall, signaling a gradual transition rather than an early, sustained warmup.
Western New York appears poised for a classic, slow-building spring. Residents should prepare for fluctuating temperatures, bursts of lake-effect snow early in the season and repeated rain events before consistent warmth settles in closer to May.
