Washington, D.C. – If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, NOAA’s latest interactive map reveals where snow is most likely to fall. Released this month, the map highlights the historic probability of at least one inch of snow on December 25.

Northern states, including Minnesota, Michigan, and Maine, boast the highest chances, with probabilities exceeding 75%. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada also stand out as likely snowy destinations. Meanwhile, southern regions such as Texas, Florida, and the Gulf Coast have less than a 10% chance of snow.
According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), these probabilities are based on 30 years of data (1991–2020). While the map offers historical trends, NOAA emphasizes that weather patterns can shift. Real-time forecasts closer to Christmas will determine actual snowfall.
For Midwest residents in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin, chances vary but improve further north. Areas near the Great Lakes have historically seen the most Christmas snow.
To check your region’s snowfall chances and explore the interactive map, visit climate.gov.
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